Week 5 2021 picks
Well we’ve just about hit the quarter pole this season and it’s been a callous lesson in humility. Where there’s strong agreement across the entries, we’ve only gotten goose-eggs in return. Not a strategy that will lead to success.
This is the point where we reassess our preseason power ratings to see whether we ought to adjust to better reflect on-field caliber going forward. Here are the best and worst team performances so far this season relative to my preseason rating.
2021 Out-performers:
ARI (+22%, 3-1 ATS)
DAL (+20%, 4-0 ATS)
LAC (+15%, 3-1 ATS)
CLE (+11%, 3-1 ATS)
CIN (+10%, 2-2 ATS)
2021 Stragglers:
HOU (-30%, 2-2 ATS)
PIT (-23%, 1-3 ATS)
JAX (-21%, 1-3 ATS)
DET (-20%, 1-3 ATS)
NO (-16%, 2-2 ATS) / MIA (-16%, 1-3 ATS)
Of those out-performing, I’d say the Chargers and the Browns were definitely noteworthy teams heading into the season, so in some ways their ascendance was expected. Similarly, on the bottom-end, we all knew the Texans, Jags, and Lions would be bad so I chalk up their fall mostly as a result of preseason mean reversion.
However, the Cardinals and Cowboys (my teams!) have been darlings so far, 7-1 combined ATS! Heck, if you deployed last week’s “invest-in-teams” strategy towards the good-5, you’d be sitting at a pretty 15-5 ATS through Week 4. Instead, it seems the algo has been slow to adjust the bad teams’ ratings to where we all knew they should’ve been to start 2021. And, not fully appreciating this limitation, we’ve been duped into backing the bad-5 on more than one occasion this year.
Let’s check-in on how our “buy-low” teams did last week:
NYG ✔️
WSH ✔️(played ATL)
ATL ❌ (played WSH)
SF ❌
KC ✔️
I’d score this 2-1-1. Let’s see what the algo spits out for Week 5…
Raw algorithm picks (last week 2-3):
WSH +2.5 ★☆
HOU +9 ★
NYJ +3 ★
BUF +2.5 ★
DET +9.5 ★
That’s more like it—5 ‘dogs. However, tracking against the teams we “invested” in from Week 4, three of the top-5 algo picks are on the other side—not a good sign—or is it?!
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
SEA (LAR) - Moderate - Home ‘dog on a Thursday night? Yes, please. The algo predicts a tight one here, Rams by a point, yet they’re getting 2.5 in the contest. The look-ahead opening line had this at Seahawks -1 but the bettors have flocked to the window at a 4:1 clip to take the Rams pushing the line to Rams -2.5. The cone-heads over at Football Outsiders sees this game exactly how my algo does (even a broken clock is right two times a day!) and, in fact, the model composite average suggests a pick ‘em is more accurate. While the Rams have have been the better team and thus garnered more of the public attention so far, we are talking about Russell Wilson vs. Matthew Stafford, which makes this line feel inflated. I’m leaning Seattle.
NYJ (ATL) - Moderate - This game is in London. The line’s been shaded towards the Jets and the public is split here signaling this move off a key number is meaningful (NYJ +3 to +2.5). The algo agrees implying a margin of only 1 point between these teams. I’m finding it hard to back either team here but let’s keep the Jets in mind as we evaluate the other games.
HOU (NE) - Moderate - The Patriots are clearly a competent team even though they don’t seem to have the firepower to blow anyone out. The Texans on the other hand barely look like an NFL team. I am still so disgusted in their TNF performance a couple weeks ago that it sickens me to want to take them here. From a strictly contrarian standpoint, the Pats had the defending champs, the Bucs, on the ropes and certainly to the casual onlooker that would bump up their confidence in the Pats moving forward—something we should fade. Whereas the Texans have scored all of 9 points in two weeks, which definitely instills confidence in them, not. With the contrarian angle established, let’s dive into the numbers. The Pats opened a 6 point favorite and were bet up to 9 midweek only to see this come down to 8 as of this post. The contest line is 9 and it’s no surprise the algo finds a lot of value here (#2 pick this week). I’ve written like 200 words on this game so I think I need to take the Texans.
MIA (@TB) - Moderate - Straight contrarian play here. I don’t see a whole lot of discernible line movement other than the jump from Bucs -7.5 to -10, where the market is currently and the contest is offering the game. The algo shows about 1.8 points of value and also shows differentiation versus the consensus so I’m inclined to trust the algo’s suggestion…just not sure it will hit the top plays of the week.
PHI (@CAR) - Moderate - Looks like I’m not the only one who hates playing the Eagles, as the public is on the Panthers at a 3:1 clip. Curiously this hasn’t moved off the key number of 3, which I read as the wise money not weighing in much on this game. If the books were needing Eagles money, this would go to 3.5. McCaffrey’s status is still uncertain. My numbers assume he’s not playing and still suggests the Panthers should be laying 5.5, so pretty significant value here. In fact, even The Athletic’s DPR model, which is one of the most accurate, shows this as a 5 point game. I would assume if Jay Glazer says McCaffrey’s “IN”, this line would jump up to 5 on Sunday morning. Does it feel too good to be true, yes. I’m like the Panthers. And, hey, red-hot Colin Cowherd’s on it too so where could we go wrong?!
JAX (TEN) - Moderate - When that video came out, it basically said “automatic contrarian play this week”. Sure enough, the public is fading the Jags at a 6:1 clip which has pushed this game up 1.5 points to Jags +4.5. The algo things 4.8 is the right number and DPR and the FO guys have it at 6.8 and 4.9, respectively. No play here.
PIT (DEN) - Moderate - Convincing reverse line move here as the Steelers opened -4.5 (must’ve been a look-ahead line because that’s an insanely high number for this game) and has moved to Broncos -1 with only about 42% of the public backing. To top that, the contest has this as Broncos +1 so we’re getting 2 points of arbitrage value versus the market. Normally, the contest correctly anticipates the line movement heading into the weekend but here it seems they didn’t move as aggressively as they should’ve. The competing contest run by the Circa guys, which arguably draws better players, has this as a pick ‘em. The algo leans Steelers at -0.6 so this game is probably a pass.
CIN (GB) - Strong - The automatic play this week. All things line up for this game: reverse line move from Packers -6 to Packers -2.5 on 2:1 Packers tickets and algo value on the Bengals (#8 value play this week versus the contest line of 3). Not much more needs to be said. I’m going Bengals.
CLE (@LAC) - Moderate - Some say a line move through 0 is a "sharp” one. I don’t see it quite the same way but it should be noted that this opened Browns favored and now have the home team, Chargers, favored by 2.5. I definitely discount this market move given that the algo had the Chargers favored here by 1 before applying the Amos Transformation. The algo isn’t quite on the Browns to win but both DPR and FO have this as strong value on the Browns. I’m going to play the Browns here.
NYG (@DAL) - Moderate - The market and contest have rested at Cowboys laying 7. The thinking would say that laying the full TD in a rivalry game is an automatic pass but the algo has the ‘Boys by 8.5 and the FO guys have this at 9.2! My gut tells me to lay the 7 but I’m going to lay off this one.
SF (@ARI) - Weak - The line’s frozen on Cardinals -5.5 and I don’t see it moving much…certainly not to 6 as it appears there’s more money backing the visiting ‘Niners. Moving to 5 is kind of a dead number. The algo forecasts Cards by 6. Other models appear to validate the market line but the distribution skews towards the ‘Niners. They’re probably the right side here but not sure about 5.5 and definitely not seeing value to play them.
Other notable games:
DET (@MIN) - Decent reverse line movement here from opening Vikings -8.5 to -10, while only getting 45% of tickets. I can’t say too many sharps are laying more than a TD in this game. The algo has the Lions forecasted as a 6.8-point underdog and The Athletic’s DPR has them as an 8.1-point ‘dog. Also, the consensus on this game is squarely behind the Vikings and this game offers the 2nd most differentiation versus the consensus of all games this week, which gives me some pause. Leaning Lions.
WSH (NO) - The contest has the Football Team a 2.5-point ‘dog while the algo thinks they should be a 1-point favorite. This is the algo’s highest-rated value of the week but everyone else in the world thinks the Saints are the right side. 3:1 tickets on the Saints. Recall, the Football Team is one of our “buy low” teams from Week 4, which paid its first dividend last week and could turn in a stellar earnings report in Week 5 against Jamies and the Saints.
BUF (@KC) - Honestly don’t know who’s setting the opening lines for some of these games. This one supposedly opened Chiefs -4.5 and was quickly bet down through the key number of 3 t0 2.5 where the contest offers it. I only have the Bills as a 1-point ‘dog so there’s value there. Most of the contest picks are taking the Bills too, which tells me maybe this is a square take as the Bills have blanked two of their last three opponents!