Week 6 2021 picks
It’d be easy if the algo spit out 3 winners each week like clockwork. Alas, this has been a challenging season so far, but there’s still many weeks remaining and I think we have to stay positive and keep the course.
Keep in mind, this blog is a perpetual work-in-progress! A season ago I introduced the weighting factors that accompany the “sharp/contrarian” sides. They’ve been my gut feel on how confidently the market’s moved and haven’t had a rigorous criteria assigned to them. Generally speaking, it’s correctly differentiated the sides (not quite to the performance I expect) but in the coming weeks, I will be working to better define the criteria that qualifies the weight of each game. Stay tuned.
Raw algorithm picks (last week 4-1, Season 56%):
CHI +4.5 ★
WSH +6.5 ★
NYG +9.5 ★
CAR +1.5 ★
SEA +5 ★
Right off the bat I’m skeptical about the algo’s selections for the Seahawks and Giants. Both of those teams were adjusted for injuries, which is the likely reason for the difference versus the contest line. Tread lightly with those two teams.
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
PHI (TB) - Moderate - I feel like we’ve been here before but a home ‘dog on a Thursday night? Yes, please. The market has moved against the algo and 70% of the public tickets are on the visiting Bucs. Amos suggests this at 7.7 (recall the Amos line is a market-adjusted projection) so only getting 6.5 appears, on the face of it, to be…dare I say…unwise. Yet, In this instance, I think the move indicates sharp action. I’ve come to the realization that there’s basically two ways of interpreting the market tea-leaves. The first is to take the opening and the consensus lines at face value, interpret the ratio of public tickets against the magnitude of line movement and make a judgment. The second, and where my head’s at these days, is to evaluate the line movement using the algorithm number as the reference point. The latter method is beneficial not only because the opening number integrity is questionable but also because it provides the proper frame for a market line move. Again, for this game, because the market move is away from the algo with a minority of public interest, I think this warrants serious consideration on the home team, Eagles.
MIA (JAX) - Weak - This game is in London. No surprise here to see algo value on the Jags of a full point but the market is moving towards the Dolphins while the public is split. The Circa contest players are on the Jags by about 2:1. Not a strong play but it seems the Dolphins have a bit more weight behind them.
CHI (GB) - Weak - The public is on the hot Packers at a 70% rate, having opened at -4.5 and moved to -6.5 in the market. This is the wrong move though, the contest has this at -4.5 and the algo even shows value against that. The Packers are the first team to trigger the Pythag W/L differential indicator, basically meaning they’ve won more than expected. This is a divisional rival so I expect a close matchup. Circa contestants are on the Packers heavily so it’s contrarian to go Bears but that’s where I’m leaning.
NE (DAL) - Weak - The Cowboys have been hot—covering all 5 games to start the season. Full disclosure: I feel like the ‘Boys are a legit championship contender. They looked the part taking the ‘Bucs to the wire in Week 1 and really haven’t let up, taking care of the meat that was in front of them so far. Dak looks focused and I wouldn’t be surprised if they blow out the Patriots on the road this week. They do have a bye next week so they have that psychological edge. Cowboys have the QB edge, while the Patriots have the coaching edge. However, anecdotes aside, the numbers indicate backing the visiting team here is the square play. Nearly 4:1 public interest on the Cowboys pushing this line to -3.5 and about 60/40 of the Circa selections are on the Cowboys. I’m going to see what else is out there…
HOU (@IND) - Weak - With a competent QB, this would be a stronger play. The line “opened” Colts -11.5 but the contrarians have been pushing this down to -10. Sounds like T.Y. Hilton will make his debut for the Colts in this one, and the Colts have been a darkhorse team the past few weeks having held their own even playing the hardest schedule per my numbers. 55% of the public action are on the Texans. The raw power ratings suggest the Colts as a 2 TD favorite but the Amos market adjustment sees value on the Texans mostly because it shudders when it sees a double-digit NFL line.
WSH (KC) - Moderate - I read that opposing defenses have “figured out” Mahomes—drop back in D and force him into a decision. Sure, he’s athletic but I think he’s benefitted from a strong supporting cast on-field and an elite coaching staff. I’m fading the Chiefs here. This game sets up well for the Football Team, at home, getting 6.5. The public still clearly believes in the Chiefs’ reputation betting them at a 4:1 clip but the line hasn’t budged! The algo thinks this should be more like 3.5-4 so there’s immense value here. The other respected models (DVOA and DPR) like the Chiefs in full disclosure but, hey!, they were wrong about the Buccaneers on Thursday so maybe their numbers are a little skewed this week!
CAR (MIN) - Moderate - I think this is a case of the public overreacting to the news that McCaffrey (aka the entire Panthers’ offense) is now officially on IR. The algo projected this line more in line with where it opened than where it’s ended up. Fortunately, the contest has this as Panthers +1.5 so there’s value. The respected models disagree, which after weighing the algo’s input, probably indicate this is a pass.
BAL (LAC) - Moderate - This will be a good one. West coast team traveling east for an early game. Some might have the impression that this automatically puts the visiting team on their back foot. I do agree with this theory but I disagree that this automatically indicates there’s value on the home team. From my analysis, the market’s more than priced this into the line. The facts: the public is on the Chargers at a 2:1 clip, which has brought the line down from opening Chargers +5.5 to +3. Both respected models forecast the Ravens at more than 6; the algo is more like 2.5. I do think the market movement is real here and that the Chargers probably are closer to a 3 point ‘dog as opposed to a 6 point ‘dog. That said, the algo also shows the “fade” indicator on the Chargers so I’m going to follow that signal here and lay the Ravens at a FG. C’mon Justin Tucker!
ARI (CLE) - Moderate - Per Action Network, this line opened Cards +4.5 and has been bet to +3.5 while the public has been backing the Browns at a 60/40 split. Earlier in the week I was squarely behind the Browns; I felt like it was a good spot for them and there was some headline news about COVID issues with the Cards. However, the algo and both respected models show value on the Cardinals and given the market move maybe the models are onto something!
DET (CIN) - Moderate - There’s split interest on this game, though slightly more tickets coming in on the Lions over the weekend it appears. The line’s been moving towards the Bengals though I think that’s simply a market correction. The algo handicaps this at Lions +3.2 and if you averaged the respected model’s projections you’d get Lions +2.8. I think the value here lies in the hook but I also think it’s a good spot for the Lions. They’ve shown some heart even though they remain winless and the Bengals are ripe for a letdown here.
Other notable games:
DEN (LV) - The market’s judged this one similarly to my model. The contest requires the Broncos to lay the FG hook at home. The market’s reached 4 and the algo says that’s the right direction. Not sure if the respected models have adjusted their numbers for Gruden’s unceremonious exit but they point in different directions, which like the Panthers/Vikings game, probably says pass. Though for the record, I lean Broncos.
TEN (BUF) - The Bills are a juggernaut right now so it’s hard to bet against them, especially laying a “dead” 5.5 in the contest. Though the Titans can be a tough out and the algo shows some decent value on the home team here. The Atheltic’s DPR agrees while FO’s DVOA disagrees. There’s 3:1 public tickets backing…wait for it…the Bills! So clearly there’s some contrarian value here if you can handle rooting for a backdoor cover.
PIT (SEA) - Hard one to bet this one here with Russ Wilson on IR and a Steelers team that looks inept at the QB position and hasn’t been reliable at the window. I adjusted the Seahawks down 5 points, whereas it appears the market has gone a full TD. That’s probably too much and there’s likely value versus the Steelers but then again, for how geriatric Roethlisberger looks he’s a better QB than Geno Smith (though I did like Geno’s stand in performance last week). Referencing the respected models, it is clear that DPR hasn’t adjusted for injuries/coaching changes. The FO guys have and back the Steelers so I’m going to lean that way but not strong enough for a play.
LAR (NYG) - Who are the Giants? Uncle Colin might like their coaching but aside from the fact that they’ve been bit by the injury bug, like really, who am I backing here? I can’t lay 9.5 on the road, definitely seems like too much but I couldn’t sleep on Sunday night knowing I put my “money” behind a Giants team that’s clearly lacking a coherent identity. If I had to take a side on every game, I’d go Giants here but I don’t like it at all.