Week 4 2021 picks
It’s been a middling start to the season. Maybe: I’m overly sensitive to the influx of public money now that most states like Arizona have legalized sports betting. Definitely: I’ve collected more model data that has rounded out my model’s forecast (read: sacrified the algorithm’s differentiating “edge” for accuracy). What it is, who really knows…but really it’s probably just noise.
Sports betting is analogous to investing in the stock market. There are tangible, quantifiable metrics that differentiate good teams from bad (like points scored versus points allowed), just like there are measures of company performance (like profit margin and share growth). However, both are markets that trade perception.
Most contest entrants treat each week discretely, meaning they analyze each week’s games independent of the weeks that straddle the current one. Kahneman would undoubtedly say that the average contestant is influenced by a team’s outcome from the week before and sports psychologists would warn against a lackluster team performance in the current week if faced with a big matchup the subsequent week. For these reasons, predisposing us of cognitive bias, there’s peril in treating each week without the proper reference frame. I find I’m most susceptible to bias when I don’t explicitly call it out, as in: “The Broncos won by 35 in a shutout last week, let’s try to discount that outlier performance if we want to pick them this week.”
As we’ve been playing the contest, we’ve selected teams as if each week is independent just like the unwashed masses. However, there’s another way to play. Investing in teams.
Allow me to explain:
Let’s say, through whatever means, you’ve identified a team that you think is much better than their recent box scores have suggested. Knowing that the public usually takes 2-4 weeks to “trust” a team that has been underperforming, you decide to “buy low” on them and pick them in the contest for the next 3-4 consecutive weeks until you feel the public (as measured by the line movement) has caught on. While I haven’t backtested this strategy, anecdotally the Panthers and Broncos were two teams that lacked public conviction to start the season but have turned in solid ATS records to start 2021. In fact, had you followed this strategy you’d be sitting at a perfect 6 points and would’ve only needed 3 out of 15 correct games to be at 60% ATS for the season!
Jury’s out on whether I’ll follow this strategy for weeks 5-8 but the teams I’m eyeing are:
NYG (1-2 ATS)
WSH (0-3 ATS)
ATL (1-2 ATS)
SF (1-2 ATS)
KC (0-3 ATS)
Raw algorithm picks (last week 2-3):
SF -3 ★★
CHI -3 ★☆
ATL +1 ★
PHI +7 ★☆
BAL +1 ★
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
PHI (KC) - Strong - Well if we can trust our data sources, this line opened Chiefs -8.5 but has come down to -7 (where the contest has it) even though 70% of the tickets are backing the Chiefs. In fact, the algo suggests this line should be more like 6 so I believe it and I’ll be backing the Eagles…yet again.
CAR (@DAL) - Strong - Ok, my gut is telling me to back the Cowboys but the line’s been moving towards the Panthers, from +5 to +4. It doesn’t take much to shift it at those numbers but the Cowboys are getting 57% of the wagers placed so it definitely indicates respected opinions on Carolina. They do have injuries yet played on Thursday in Week 3 so they’ve had more days of rest. I’m going to hold off here for now given the conflicting signals.
NYJ (TEN) - Moderate - Nothing makes me want to back a team more than a rookie QB, off a 30+ point shutout, but they are playing this game at home and getting a full TD in the contest. Public is predictably backing the Titans at a 2:! clip and some idiot at the book opened this game Titans -3.5, which was clearly wrong, but is an interesting point because while the contest has anticipated the line move to 7, not every book has gotten there, suggesting there’s some resistance along the way! I’ll be playing the home ‘dog Jets here.
WSH (@ATL) - Moderate - I’ve heard a convincing line move through 0 (and probably other key numbers too) is a sharp move. In this case, the Falcons opened as a short home favorite (-2.5) but has been steamed through 0 to WSH -1.5. Fortunately the contest only requires bettors to lay 1 with the Football Team. The algo likes the Falcons at -0.8 while my invest-in-teams strategy would like to back the Football Team over the next few weeks. I’m going to trust the market action here and back Washington.
ARI (@LAR) - Strong - I like the Cardinals in this matchup. Anecdotally, the Rams are off a big, emotional win versus the defending champs, Bucs, and the Cardinals have long been a darkhorse contender. This is a divisional matchup, which tend to have closer final score margins and the wise market appears to be trending that way; line’s moved from Rams -4.5 to -4 off of 45% Cardinals tickets. The algo prefers the Rams up to -5 so the reverse line move is definitely noteworthy. The Rams are a good team and a generally public team so there’s reason to think that if the line were to be skewed, it’d likely be toward the Rams rather than the Cardinals. Consider the Cardinals pick #6 this week.
DEN (BAL) - Strong - In my estimate, this is the sharpest play of the week. Uncle Colin suggested this could be a blowout at the hands of the Broncos. The algo says this game is a dead-nuts pick ‘em and the market is heading that way from opening Ravens -3. The contest actually offers this game at Broncos -1 so this would be exhibit A of what I outlined in the introduction, that backing an overlooked team can be fruitful until the public catches on. I think this might be the last week to extract any value from the Broncos.
NE (TB) - Weak - Ooh! Tom Brady returning to Foxborough to face Belichick! Everyone is backing Brady here at a 6:1 clip, which is pretty much an automatic fade. The line’s stopped at a full TD in the market, whereas the contest only gives the Pats +6.5. I estimate about 0.4-points of value on the Patriots and I’d be backing them if not for juicier matchups above.
LV (LAC) - Moderate - Here we have the market moving decidedly toward the Raiders from +4 to +3. I actually concur with this move as the algo recommends -2.4 as the fair line. I might actually consider backing this one in a few of my entries if my partners concur. My only hesitation is that I fear it might be midnight for the Raiders in their Cinderella start to the season.
Other notable games:
NYG (@NO) - Uncle Colin likes the G-Men this week as do I. The line’s moved convincingly from Saints -5 to -7 off of only 53% public interest, which implies there’s been some wiseguy action on the Saints but even more notable that there’s been action on the Giants to push it from a dead number of 5 to the full TD. If I were to put myself in the shoes of a sharp, of course I’d back the Saints until it got to 6 at least and even then maybe until 7. Even if I’m way off in this logic, I think taking the Giants here is more about playing the number (Giants with the hook in the contest) than anything else. The algo slightly leans Saints (-7.8) for the record.
MIN (CLE) - I like the Vikings. They have a darkhorse vibe to them right now. The public is on the Browns at a 2:1 clip and the line’s moved proportionally that direction from Browns -1 to -2. The other models have a lot of variance otherwise this would be a stronger play but my number has this more like Vikings +1.4 so getting a half point so close to 0 is valuable and I think this matchup is suited favorably to back the home ‘dog here.
GB (PIT) - I think the contest got this number right. The algo thinks the Packers -6.8 but to move from 6.5 (contest and market line) to 7 is a big move. In fact, 80% of the public interest is on the Packers yet the line’s only moved 0.5 point from opening Packers -6. Pass here.
CHI (DET) - It appears the market is leaning in on the Lions this week. Perhaps influenced by the Lions’ inspired performance against the Ravens last week? I can’t trust either team and backing either team makes me sick to my stomach so that’s all that needs to be said about this one.
SF (SEA) - Rivalry matchup here. I thought for sure Russell Wilson and the Seahawks would over-deliver these past couple of weeks but that hasn’t been the case. The market is shifting toward the Seahawks on the road, through a key number of 3 (from ‘Niners -3.5 to -2.5). I don’t know…Seahawks clearly have the better QB situation…these two teams are pretty much evenly rated on a neutral field. From what I witnessed a couple weeks ago in prime time, I don’t think the ‘Niners have a home field advantage at all so maybe I see what the 70% of Seahawks backers are seeing too? Who knows. Pass.