Week 12 2021 picks
Raw algorithm picks (last week 1-4, season 30-25):
NYG +3.5 ★★⚐
SEA +1 ★⇧⚐
DAL -7.5 ★
GB pick ★
TEN +6.5 ★⇩⚐
Preferred sides:
DET (CHI) - Moderate - This is the opening game on Thanksgiving Day! The market has been moving in the direction of the Lions since opening—hitting Lions +2.5 with juice early Thursday morning. The algo handicaps this at Bears -3.5 and that’s without considering Dalton at QB and the confusing Matt Nagy HC tenure situation. The Lions to benefit from having the Pythag W/L advantage so there might be some overweighting on the public towards the Bears. Public is split 55/45 slightly leaning the Bears. Plus, the Lions enjoy the home field advantage in a big game. The Lions haven’t won yet this season, having lost 4 straight on Thanksgiving, but if there’s ever a game to win, it’s this one. I’m going to back the home team.
DAL (LV) - Weak - My gut certainly likes the Cowboys here on Thanksgiving but the number isn’t great at 7.5. Since the algo handicaps this one at -9.4 the question becomes whether Cowboys backers think this will be a 2 possession game or come down to a TD? The sharps seem to be backing the Cowboys at 7, where this game opened but not as much action, unsurprisingly, at 7.5. The Football Outsiders guys have this one at 7.2, so some light value on the Raiders. I’m going to pass on choosing a side here in the contest.
BUF (@NO) - Weak - Again, my gut and the public appear to like the Bills to show some of their early season form in the primetime matchup against the Saints on Thanksgiving. The contest offers this game as Bills -6, where the public has bet it up to 6.5 with a 3:1 ticket ratio. Amos likes this one at 5.5 so at 6 most of the value has vanished. I have the Bills still power rated as the best team, though by my estimation, they’ve played the easiest schedule so far, which indicates maybe my rating is slightly inflated. For that reason, I’m going to pass.
TEN (@NE) - Moderate - Do we risk going against the Belichick train again this week? Well maybe. The contest has this as Pats -6.5 and the number’s been rising to 7.5 as of Sunday morning. About even on the ticket count, which in a vacuum would indicate more money behind the Pats. I do think that’s the case but at 6.5 (and certainly 7.5), the value is squarely behind the visiting Titans. Amos handicaps this one at 3.8.
MIN (@SF) - Weak - Somehow the Niners became a trendy team ATS again and are quietly playing .500 ball. The market has this at a FG which matches the contest. I handicap this at 2.5 so there’s some value on the Vikes. Looking at the other models, the FO guys see it more like I do with about a point of value on the Vikings, while The Athletic’s new model thinks the market line is fair. Lean Vikings but will pass playing this one—not enough edge.
JAX (ATL) - Strong - The Jags host the Falcons as a short home ‘dog of 2.5. Amos likes this at Jags +1.5 so there’s value backing them here. The public is on the Falcons at a 70% clip. The other models are on opposite sides so if we average Amos and the other two, we land about at Jags +0.5.
NYG (PHI) - Moderate - Earlier in the week the Giants looked like the right side here as the public tickets were rolling in on the Eagles and the line was pretty much frozen. The adage goes, take a favorite early and an underdog late so the lack of line movement signaled to me that we’d see some Sunday morning reverse line action on the G-Men. Turns out we haven’t seen that as the market has climbed past the contest line of 3.5 all the way to 4.5. Amos handicaps this at Giants +1.9 so even at 3.5 there’s value but given the accelerating market moves, I’m going to lay off this one.
CIN (PIT) - Weak - This might be a good candidate to fade the algo here. I handicap this at Bengals -5.1 and the contest is needing me to lay only 4. Sounds enticing but the Steelers have shown up on multiple “sharp” reports, which indicates maybe my algo is missing something seeing as the market has moved to 3.5 as of Sunday morning. The public is on the Steelers 2:1. Both advanced models lean Steelers as a top play and even though it’s good practice to take the better team in these situations where we’ve got conflicting signals, there are other games on the board that offer similar value instead.
MIA (CAR) - Moderate - The contest is giving the Dolphins 2.5 at home which is over a FG of value per Amos. Clearly, my model hasn’t caught up to the Panthers with Cam Newton at the helm since both advance models show the value on them here. The Sunday morning bets have been rolling in on the Dolphins however even though for the week the tickets have been 2:1 on the Panthers. If I had to take a side on each game, I’d go Dolphins here with some fair confidence.
LAR (@GB) - Weak - How many points is Aaron Rodgers’ toe worth? Market seems to think 2.5. The contest has this game at a pick ‘em, while Amos shows the value on the home team Packers. My gut says Rams mostly because they’re coming off a bye, Stafford is familiar with the frozen tundra, and Rodgers isn’t 100%. This also appears to be a trendy pick, which scares me but I’m going to play it.