Week 13 2021 picks
Raw algorithm picks (last week 2-3, season 32-28):
BUF -3 ★
SEA +3.5 ★⇧⚐
DEN +9.5 ★
WSH +2.5 ★
CHI +8 ★
Preferred sides:
LAC (CIN) - Strong - The contest has this game at 3 and the market has arrived there from opening at Bengals -2.5. There’s been 60% action on the home team Bengals but the value per Amos appears on the visiting Chargers. Uncle Colin is on them in his Blazin’ 5 for what that’s worth. Football Outsiders also is heavily backing the Chargers. I’m going to play this one as well.
HOU (IND) - Strong - The Colts are clearly the better team and it’s usually wise to back the better team ATS but in this case the public is way overrating the Colts in this matchup. For one, the Amos number is 7.5, and that’s about where this game opened on Tuesday. Yet, it’s been steamed up to 10 at some spots off 4:1 public interest and the contest has this at 9. The Colts do hold the Pythag advantage here and for that reason I’m not going to back the Texans.
CHI (ARI) - Moderate - I’ve handicapped this game assuming Kyler Murray is not playing at Cardinals -6. The contest has this game at Bears +8 whereas the market isn’t quite arrived at that number. The public is behind the visiting Cardinals at a 3:1 clip and the line’s moved from 7 to 7.5. The value is on the Bears in this one and there might be rain in the forecast too for what that’s worth.
NYJ (PHI) - Strong - If there’s one thing we know this season it’s that Uncle Colin’s Blazin’ 5 is guaranteed to get at least 1 game wrong each week. He’s on the Eagles here and I think he might be wrong. The market has started to move against the Eagles; while opening at 6.5 it’s been trending towards 4 even though the Jets are only getting 1 bet out of every 3 placed. The Amos line is 6 so seeing the market move through my number indicates this is a trend worth following. Though the Eagles hold the Pythag advantage, it is in line with the public perception. It makes me sick to back the Jets so I’m going to.
WSH (@LV) - Strong - It feels like an eternity since we had a matchup that both showed value in the algo and had a sharp reverse line move. This one is Washington +2.5 in the contest, where it opened, but has been steadily moving downward even though the public is 2:1 tickets backing the home team. Even Football Outsiders’ crack model shows value versus the contest number.
SEA (SF) - Moderate - This is basically like the NFL’s rivalry week with this matchup in a primetime slot and my favorite NFL rivalry, Ravens-Steelers. With that, it does feel like a FG is the right number for this matchup. Therefore, getting the hook here is value enough to play, not to mention the algo says 2 is the fair number. Backing the Seahawks also comes with a couple signals: recent high profile loss/non-cover and the Pythag advantage. Those two combined tell me the value is squarely on the Seahawks.
BAL (@PIT) - Weak - Line’s moved here from 2.5 to 4.5 favoring the visiting Ravens off ~60% public backing. Again, Amos suggests 4.3 is the right number so no surprise the market’s gotten there. My gut wants the Ravens but there’s not enough value to put on a play here. Pass.
DEN (@KC) - Weak - The contest has this at 9.5 and the public is surprisingly backing the visiting Broncos at a 2:1 clip. The line has slightly dipped to 8.5 off that but given the square, Uncle Colin has the Broncos as a top play this week, that tells me my inclinations to back the Broncos is also square. The one stat that made me pause following Cowherd’s advice was pointing out that the Chiefs haven’t covered much in the last two seasons. True, but Colin is also quick to quote “regression to the mean” and to that point I think the Chiefs have clearly lost their ATS luster given the public discrepancy in this matchup. Averaging Football Outsiders and my algo suggests maybe 5.5 is the right line so the market number, even at the last consensus line of 8.5 seems way off.
BUF (NE) - Moderate - Football Outsiders thinks the Patriots are in the top echelon of teams currently and handicap this game as Pats -1. The contest has the Bills laying 3 and my number is Bills -5.8. The market is moving down and the public is slightly leaning towards the Patriots. To me, it feels like the Pats are the “safe” side, which probably means it’s the wrong side. Sure, they’ve been very good lately but the Bills are also a top-tier team, in division, and a location that may have a weather impact.