Week 11 2021 picks
Raw algorithm picks (last week 2-3, season 29-21):
ATL +6.5 ★⇩⚐
DAL +2.5 ★
NO +2 ★
MIA -3.5 ★
LV +1 ★
Preferred sides:
ATL (NE) - Moderate - This is the Thursday night game. The advanced analytics models favor the Patriots as does the market steam, moving this line from opening 5.5 to 6.5 off 3:1 public tickets. My algo actually shows actionable value on the Falcons here with a fair line of 4.3—that’s 2 points of value. This game hits on some key signals like the home team on a short week one and the team-failed-to-cover-last-week-while-opponent-covered one. The latter is currently trending at ~67% so far this season. I also like to fade the trendy team heading into an opponent that is clearly beneath them in the case of the Falcons. The signals that worry me are the Patriots having the Pythag advantage and the strong market movement through the key number of 6—moving against the home team Falcons. I’m not going to push this one in all my entries but, in my solo one, I’ll be rolling the dice with Matty Ice!
CHI (BAL) - Weak - The Bears just lost a key defensive player, Khalil Mack, to a season ending injury. Players outside key skill positions aren’t usually worth more than a point. Even still, in downgrading the Bears a full point, the algo suggests Ravens -4.8, while the contest has it at -5. The market seems static at 6 while nearly 4:1 tickets are on the Ravens. My gut says the Ravens but I’m torn. I’m going to pass.
TEN (HOU) - Weak - My gut says this game is probably a letdown spot for the Titans hosting the lowly Texans fresh off a bye last week. The contest has this line at an even 10. The market thinks 10 is a pretty solid number…not much movement either way and the public is split on this as well. The algo shows about a half-point value on the home team, Titans, actually, but the expert models show modest value on the Texans. My line is closer to the Vegas line, which is why I lean that way but no play here in the contest.
NO (@PHI) - Moderate - All three models show value on the visiting Saints here. The average line from the models suggest a line should be Eagles -0.5 not -2, where the contest has it. There is some concerning market movement towards the Eagles, however. The line opened around 2 but has been trending towards 3 even though the public is squarely behind the Saints at roughly 60-65%. For what it’s worth Uncle Colin is on this one and it’s a top-5 algo play this week. Let’s see what else is out there, I respect the market enough to pause on this game.
BUF (IND) - Moderate - This is easily the trendiest game of the week. Everyone is on the Colts to cover the TD here. So much so that I’m almost thinking the contrarian side is to lay the points with the Bills! The algo likes the Bills by 8.8 so only needing to lay 7 shows value. The other expert models are split around the market line. The public is getting on the Colts though at a modest 55% clip. The Colts do meet the team-failed-to-cover-last-week-while-opponent-covered signal but the line hasn’t been inflated because of that. Honestly here I’m going to see how the weekend plays out with this line movement. If it starts to creep up to 8, I’ll likely lay the 7 with the Bills.
MIN (GB) - Moderate - The contest has this game as Pack -2 on the road. Uncle Colin likes the Vikes with the rationale that Cousins is competent against the division foe. The Packers clearly had a better-than-expected outcome last week and their ATS performance has been stellar to this point. The algo thinks a FG is a fairer line, where as the two expert models think 1.5 is closer to the right number. Since the market is showing reverse line movement towards the Vikings, I’m liking this setup here. Vikings +2.
WSH (@CAR) - Moderate - C’mon people…do we really think Cam Newton is an upgrade at QB? Perhaps he’s worth a half point right now over Sam Darnold. Even so, the algo handicaps this one as Panthers -3 when the contest is giving Washington the hook! I’ll take that here. I think these teams are very close in my power ratings and the value I see lies completely in the hook. Additionally, the market is trending towards Washington while they’re only getting 45% of the public interest. It does worry me slightly that Washington is coming off a big win against the Bucs but the market seems to have that priced in—either that or the Cam Newton news has sucked the oxygen out of the public.
SEA (ARI) - Moderate - The Cardinals lately haven’t looked like the team that started the year undefeated. Of course, Colt McCoy was at the helm and multiple skill players were out. I think the historical base rate between these two teams comes into play in this matchup. The contest has this line as Seahawks getting 2.5, which every other model but my algo thinks is the right side. Even my gut likes the Seachickens here.
DAL (@KC) - Weak - Somethings not right in this one. I know my algo isn’t the most sophisticated but it usually can predict the market line within a point or two for most games. This one is off by a full 6 before applying the Amos transform function. Did the public all of a sudden regain their confidence in the Chiefs after their big win last week? In a vacuum, the only tangible evidence I see for laying the points with the Chiefs is the fact that I get a half-point of “value” against the key number of 3. The models are split, which leads me to trust my numbers. In fact, the Football Outsiders guys have this as their #1 ATS play this week. Alright, give me the Cowboys!