Week 10 2021 picks
We’ve past the halfway point of the season. While it may seem like having watched each team 9 times would give us an idea of how they will perform each week going forward, that’s a mirage. If the entries would’ve followed the algo the past 3 weeks we’d have gone 12-3! On the season, it’s head and shoulders above the best of our other entires.
Raw algorithm picks (last week 4-1, season 27-18):
LAC -3 ★⇩
JAX +10 ★⇩
DEN -3 ★
WSH +9.5 ★
LV +2.5 ★⚐
Preferred sides:
WSH (TB) - Weak - Well we have our first unavoidable quandary: follow the hot algo or side with all the other signals? Here the contest is offering this game at Washington +9.5 but it’s been bet up to 10 off 3:1 public tickets. The two other models, DVOA and The Athletic’s DPR agree that only laying 9.5 offers up to 3 points of value on the defending champs. Would I be that surprised to see Brady roll on Washington, even on the road? No, not really. Still, I don’t think Vegas gives out money for free and not even laying double-digits here seems too good to be true. I handicap this game at a TD so I’m going to take that value and play Washington.
DET (@PIT) - Moderate - My angle in this game is the relative difference in public perception between these two teams. On the Steelers, they’ve started to play with a little more confidence the past 3-4 weeks, reversing their early season trend. The Lions on the other hand had been enveloped by the narrative that they’re better than their record…that is until being rolled on in their last two games; now it’s as if the public thinks they’ve given up. Even listening to Uncle Colin feebly try to explain that Jared Goff is a competent QB was half-inspired. All three models (Amos, DVOA, DPR) agree that around a TD is the fairer line here so getting 8.5 offers value. It should be noted that the Lions have the Pythag edge here, which is an indication that the public perception is worth fading. The market, however, seems to agree and shows this line trending towards the Steelers even though the home team is only getting fewer than 40% of the bets at the window. Late breaking news…Roethlisberger is out with Covid so the value here is squarely on the Lions and it’s now a play against the static contest line.
CLE (@NE) - Moderate - Ok, looks like the public is split here (tends to happen more often with spreads less than a FG). The contest offers the Browns +1.5, while the market hasn’t quite gotten there (currently between 2 and 2.5). Amos suggests a pick ‘em (CLE +0.3) and both expert models agree that CLE +0.5 is the right number. Therefore, I see a full point of value in this game. If last week’s performance was the start of something good for the Browns, I think the reason points to jettisoning OBJ. Let’s keep this one in the back of our mind; it might be a good 5th play if 3 others don’t appear.
JAX (@IND) - Weak - The contest has this one at Colts -10. The market hasn’t budged off the opener of 10.5 even though they’ve taken a slight majority of tickets on the Colts. If I’m reading the tea leaves correctly, this tells me the books haven’t taken sharp action on this game, probably haven’t taken many bets on this one period, and so they’re comfortable taking a side on the road ‘dog. The algo handicaps this at a TD, mostly due to the Amos adjustment. I’d put this game in the potential 5th play category. Let’s move on…
ATL (@DAL) - Weak - Isn’t it curious how a team that’s arguably one of the best in the league this season lays a total egg last week only for every pundit outside of the Southeast to predict this game as a “get right” spot for the Cowboys? That’s what makes this contest so difficult—betting on teams to perform up to expectation each week when the evidence points to such a large variation. Anyway, let’s dig into the specifics of this one. The contest offers this game at Cowboys -9.5. The market opened at 9 and has seen momentum towards the road ‘dog, Falcons, while the public tickets are split. I’m long on the Cowboys for the season but I don’t see this game being a double-digit blow out.
TEN (NO) - Weak - The algo likes the favorite here, Titans -3. The market is trending in that direction, currently sitting at the key number of 3 with 63% of the public tickets. The algo handicaps this one at 4.3, while both of the other models think the Saints getting the full FG has value. So just like the Washington/Bucs game the question is, which signal is worth following? I think this one is not worth playing as one of the top 5 mostly due to the non-differentiation versus the public and with the Titans fresh off a high-profile win last week.
NYJ (BUF) - Moderate - What do I have to do to get off the Jets every week? The only thing going for them is how sick it makes me to back them, which is usually the sign of a good bet! The contest has this one at 11.5. The market opened at 13.5 and has been moving slowing towards the Jets, now at Jets +13 even though they’re getting fewer than 40% of the tickets. However, Amos leans the Bills, thinking 13.5 is the right line for this one. Maybe 5 years ago the hard rule was passing on double-digit NFL favorites. That’s not quite so firm and if there’s ever a get right spot off an embarrassing prior week performance, it’s against the lowly division rival, Jets. Still gotta pass.
LAC (MIN) - Moderate - The contest gives this game at Chargers -3. The algo suggests -5.4. The market opened at a FG and some books have pushed it to 3.5 even though the favorites are only getting 45% of the bets. The other models lean Vikings but this feels like the team that wins will cover. I like the Chargers here.
LV (KC) - Strong - I like this one. For one, I haven’t heard much chatter about this matchup and the Chiefs are getting the benefit of beating a Rodgers-less Packers team last week. The contest has this at Raiders +2.5 whereas the algo thinks that offers about 1.5-points of value. The Athletic’s DPR matches my algo but the FO guys lean Chiefs. The market opened at the FG number but has seen some books creep towards the home ‘dog even though the Chiefs are getting 2:1 public tickets. The Raiders are the play.
SF (LAR) - Moderate - This was looking like a juicy contrarian play, when, on Saturday evening, news dropped that Robert Woods (LAR WR) will miss the remainder of the season but OBJ will start in his place. I dropped my Rams power rating by about a point on this news and that put the algo number right below the contest line of 4. The other models land between 3-4. With the market joining the models at 3.5, it just feels lower than I would’ve expected. The market has moved slightly towards the ‘Niners even though 3:1 tickets are on the Rams. I’m going to go with the ‘Niners