Week 3 2020 picks
Week 2 was tailor made for covers! It would’ve been a missed opportunity if we didn’t get 4 out of 5 last week (kind of like—and the entries came through with strong scores across the board. Some weeks the games just set up nicely. Other weeks, like this Week 3, offer no clues as to the right side. It should be noted that the Amos transformation held up nicely last week and looks like we’ll have a strong showing this week too. Though, it took a little adjusting to the asymmetric recommendation but I think I’ve figured it out the best way to interpret the new algorithm’s outputs. Here were the Week 2 results:
Entry A (Alex): 4-1
Entry B (Sean): 3-2
Entry C (Bryan): 5-0
Entry D (Alex & Erik): 3-2
So 75% for Week 2! Very nice! For those following along, Legendary Lauren, got back to her winning ways too with a strong 4-1 week herself. 🙄
Raw algorithm picks:
LAR +2.5 ★★
WSH +7 ★★
CIN +5 ★
GB +3 ★
DEN +6 ★
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
HOU (@PIT) - Moderate - Public is on PIT at a 60% clip but the line’s moved toward HOU +4. The Texans have a very tough start to the season: playing 3 top-10 teams right out of the gate. I expect this to be the most popular play of the week in the contest but Amos shows 4 being the right number here. For this reason I’m tempering my excitement for playing HOU. My official recommendation is to lay off this number but clearly influential bettors have made their case. It also should be noted that sometimes books will adjust the lines from the opening number, but it doesn’t mean sharps will continue to play the resultant number after the adjustment. I suspect this is the case here—sharps loved HOU +6.5, +6, maybe +5.5, but now laying off until Sunday when this might get to a FG—expect buy-back on PIT at -3 for a middle opportunity.
MIN (TEN) - Strong - This is a gut contrarian play here. The line opened at a pick ‘em (I show it at TEN -1), but the line move to a full FG is too far. Plus ~3:1 tickets on TEN, on the road, I’m likely to back MIN in this spot. Though I’ve been higher than the consensus on TEN all season and currently have them as my 8th-ranked team, the early Pythag W/L differential suggests TEN is a weak 2-0 team. Laying 3 points on the road is a bridge too far. MIN is the play here.
CIN (@PHI) - Moderate - I expect the Bengals to show well in this game. Line has moved 1-point towards CIN amidst a split public (50/50 ticket count). Normally, I would think this would be a good spot for the Eagles, but without home field advantage, I think the move down is in the right direction (I show this game straddling 2.5) and value remains on CIN. If this move momentum continues over the weekend, I’ll be backing Cinci here.
NYJ (@IND) - Weak - A couple seasons ago, taking 11 points was an automatic play. Not so much anymore. I heard this week on VSiN, anecdotally, that the public’s appetite couldn’t be satiated at 7, 8, 9…all the way to 11 and apparently it hasn’t been met—as of this writing it’s at 11.5! The total has shifted slightly lower too, which indicates even more value on the 11 points (currently at O/U of 44, a 4x ratio versus the opening number of 7 and 45, 6.5x). I think the opening number was the better line here and will be playing the Jets if I can convince my partners to agree.
SEA (DAL) - Weak - Even ticket count but the line’s moved toward Seattle. Given the relatively high total number (57), this line doesn’t appear as large as one would think. (Insert future analysis on final score margin variance versus game total points) My numbers suggest around a FG is a fair line so the move up to 5 in the contest tempts me to take the points and Dallas.
DEN (TB) - Strong - Denver is one of the least sexy teams in the NFL this season yet they been an effective play ATS so far (2-0). Here again, they’re pitted against a potent TB team still glowing from their first win with Brady. The public tickets are 4:1 on TB (strong contrarian signal) and that’s moved the line up from 3.5 to 5.5 in favor of TB. Laying points on the road is not a good proposition, coupled with my handicap at TB -1.5, I will be playing DEN this week and hoping they continue their ATS dominance.
NO (GB) - Weak - Classic bounce-back spot for the Saints. They looked flat against the Raiders on MNF, almost like they were looking ahead to the showdown with the Packers this week. The line opened at a shockingly high NO -6.5, only to be predictably bet down to NO -3.5. The gut play here is definitely GB and 2 out of 3 tickets agree. My algo even wants in on the action, but looking closer, I think the unwashed masses will have this game wrong. You gotta ask yourself, if the obviously play is on GB, and without much home field advantage to bank on, why would this game still have NO favored by at least a field goal? I don’t like betting against the algo and so I’m going to avoid this game.
CLE (WSH) - Weak - The algorithm really likes the Football Team in this matchup, especially at a full TD but the betting market seems to favor the Browns. With the ticket count basically split (53% on CLE) the move from the open of 5.5 to 7 is too significant to ignore, especially with the total move downward. With conflicting signals, I’ll be passing here.
LAR (@BUF) - Weak - Money seems to be coming in on the Bills since the line’s dropped to -1.5 in the market (contest is at -2.5). I have this as a pick ‘em game and with the total moving up to 47.5 from 45, I think the books think this will be an evenly contested matchup. In a surprise move, LA-homer, Uncle Colin, likes the Bills here but if you are feeling it, take the Rams and the points.
BAL (KC) - Weak - Finally! The game everyone had circled the quarter of the season. The top-2 teams face off on MNF! The raw algo leans KC and is with the public (68% tickets on the Chiefs). But I have the Ravens as the highest power rated team and at home, I like the Ravens to give the Chiefs their first loss in many months.
Unofficial Plays: