Week 2 2020 picks
No surprise here. Week 1 of the 2020 season was a mixed bag. Not yet sure it’s a blessing or a curse that games didn’t go as planned in Week 1. You could assume had games gone in accordance with my predictions (generally), I would’ve gotten a false sense of security in my picks going into Week 2. As it stands, my contest entries went as follows:
Entry A (Alex): 2-3
Entry B (Sean): 3-1-1
Entry C (Bryan): 2-3
Entry D (Alex & Erik): 3-2
So 10.5 out of a possible 20 points. Not great but no entries scored below 2 points for the week, which is very difficult to overcome to end the season in the money. The legendary back-to-back winner, Lauren R., miraculously went 1-4 to start her 3-peat campaign. Though I’m not yet counting her out as she started last season poorly as well only to come storming back on the back-9.
Mostly because last week’s games seemed like a total crapshoot (as if they’re ever not), I’ve decided to go back to the basics a bit and reintroduce the other models into my algorithm. Additionally, I have started to experiment with my Amos Transformation hypothesis, which attempts to adjust for the bettor’s behavioral tendency to incorrectly weight expected probabilities. Backtest results show marginal value added and the predictions for Week 2 simultaneously confirm the “old” algorithm suggestions and offer differentiated selections—which was the main impetus for going live with this new algo. So here are the new, raw algo picks for Week 2:
Raw algorithm picks:
(N.B. Since I’m writing this on a Friday the CIN-CLE Thursday Night game has concluded.)
CIN +6 ★★
LV +5.5 ★★
LAC +8.5 ★
DET +6 ★
DEN +7 ★
CAR +9 ★
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
CHI (NYG) - Moderate - Line hasn’t budged from CHI -5.5 even as the G-Men are getting 2:1 tickets. This usually indicates respected money is anchoring the other side. I don’t have it as a top-6 algo play but my numbers show value on the Bears here: CHI -6.4. Right out of the gate, here’s a line that looks appetizing versus the new algo when the old algo only shows CHI -5.1, and would’ve been a pass. CHI -5.5 looks like a play for now…let’s check the other games.
ATL (@DAL) - Moderate - I’m getting mixed signals here, and one of my stronger performing signals, the “sharp” signal (56% all-time) is showing ATL as the play. There are ~3:1 tickets on ATL, but line has moved sharply, no pun intended, towards ATL (opened DAL -7, currently DAL -4.5). Conversely, both Uncle Colin and my algo like DAL in this spot. I have this game as showing roughly 1 full point of value on DAL. DAL seems to be the right side here even though the public is all over them.
DEN (@PIT) - Weak - Line has moved to the key number of PIT -7 from the opener of -5.5. My algo thinks the value is squarely on DEN here, especially at the key number. I have DEN +4.1 (and the old algo is even more bullish at DEN +2.5!). PIT is undoubtedly the better team and I feel the line move may have been due to early action on PIT, not necessarily a play against DEN. While I don’t like the fact they’re on the road, I’m guessing the sharps have this game closer to 6 and are hoping for a middle. If I see “buy-back” on DEN over the weekend, I’ll move them into the top-5.
IND (MIN) - Strong - Seems like sharps are all over the Colts here. Line opened -2.5 and has moved to -3 even though the public is backing the Vikings at a more than 3:1 clip! I’ll admit, the Colts losing to the lowly Jaaaaaaaggs last week wasn’t a good look (and I know killed a lot of survivor contest picks) and now facing a hungry Vikings team makes one question why the play here. But sometimes, these are the games that cash, even though they don’t make sense. For the record, my numbers show value on MIN, so again, with the public here, but it’s hard to ignore the strong sharp/contrarian signal.
NYJ (SF) - Weak - Public seems to have not forgotten that the ‘Niners are NFC Champions even though they lost at home last week. The Jets didn’t look any better in their Week 1 loss and maybe that’s the reason the public is 4:1 on SF driving the number up from -6 to -7. My algo likes NYJ +3.5 so getting 6.5 in the contest seems like value, even though the market has moved higher.
DET (@GB) - Moderate - 77% of tickets on GB but the line’s only moved 0.5-point in that direction. I don’t think this move is enough given the Packers’ history as a public team, suggesting there’s heft on the other side of the line. My algo says the Lions should be 4.7-point underdogs so getting 6 in the contest shows value.
LAC (KC) - Moderate - The public ticket ratio is…wait for it…a whopping 8:1 (88%) on the Chiefs pushing the line from -6.5 to -9. Some might say it’s not wise to bet against Mahomes & Reid (I can see my friend Sean shaking his head right now) but the contrarian would argue this is classic public overreaction. For one, the Chargers are at home. Two, this is a divisional game, which tends to have lower variance. And three, the algo thinks 6 is the fair line.
LV (NO) - Moderate - No surprise to see the line move a full point from the open to NO -5.5 off 70% NO action. But while the line’s shifted, the total has moved lower, meaning taking the points have more value. Adding to this the fact that the Raiders are playing their home opener in a new stadium (sans fans) and that the new algo suggests the fair value is around a FG, I think playing the Raiders here is the side worth playing.
Unofficial Plays: