Week 17 2019 picks
Well we managed to stay relevant through Week 16, logging a solid 3-2 week with the official picks, putting our season average at a respectable 58%. Hitting 70% this week would clinch our best season yet, and going 5 for 5 would help us crowbar our way onto the podium.
Progress not perfection.
However, Week 17 is notoriously difficult to forecast. Good teams rest their starters for the playoffs, bad teams seek to secure a high draft position, and the teams in the middle of the NFL standings are, frankly, inconsistent performers by definition. On the other hand, you have teams that are playing for a playoff spot or have seeding implications and often players on teams that have nothing to play for have contract clauses that execute if individual statistic milestones are accomplished. Not to mention many of the games feature divisional rivalries that motivate all to compete. There’s a lot of noise in Week 17 but we can wade through the fog to identify value worth taking.
First, let’s review how we did in Week 16:
Raw algorithm picks: 2-3 (40%)
Unofficial plays: 2-2-1 (50%)
Official plays: 3-2 (60%)
Before we proceed, a word to the wise: any good modeler must be self-aware about where the algorithm performs well and where its blind-spots are. I know from past experience that my algorithm struggles with Week 17 handicapping so I fully expect to weight the market action heavier this week. With that PSA out of the way, here are the Week 17 raw algorithm suggestions.
Raw algorithm picks:
BAL +2 ★
BUF -1.5 ★
MIN -1 ★
SEA +3.5 ★
LAR -3 ★
As expected, there aren’t any 2-star plays this week due to the high variance between models. Let’s dig into the sharp and contrarian sides this week. For this week and going forward, I’ll bold the top teams the algo has identified as a potential play when I analyze the sharp/contrarian sides.
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
CHI (@MIN) - Moderate - With MIN likely resting their key players, this line opened at MIN -7 and has moved strongly towards CHI (+1), where the SuperContest has it. This is a perfect example of what I warned about above. My algo would’ve opened this line with MIN as a TD favorite, like the books did, so even though the algo suggests MIN has a ton of value, it’s a mirage. The public is nearly 3:1 on MIN and my System 1 thinking agrees. I feel the amount time Cousins plays will determine what side we take here. CHI is the contrarian side but I don’t trust the Bears. Lean MIN.
ATL (@TB) - Weak - Neither team has much to play for. The SuperContest line has this game as a pick ‘em, while the current market hasn’t yet arrived at that number (ATL +1 from the opening number of ATL +2 off 60% public backing—a magnitude shift within expectation). ATL seems to be the token System 1 play. Though, I slightly favor TB in this matchup (by 0.5 points) using the raw algo numbers and the other models agree. Since there really isn’t a motivational advantage on either side, there might be some value to take on TB here playing at home even with the uncertainty at WR. When considering the market move, the best option here is to pass.
NE (MIA) - Weak - Over 60% of the tickets coming in on MIA but with the Pats hoping to secure that coveted first round bye, the money is rolling in on them pushing the number to NE -16. The SuperContest line posted NE -15.5 and my algo likes NE by over 18 points. There’s reason for Belichick to rest his starters but this is a classic case of the system winning over emotion. The Patriots are the essence of a “system” team, where the emphasis on the player name and talent is secondary to the success of the unit. Could the same be said for the Dolphins? Seems like they’ve been playing the “prove everyone wrong” card all season. Textbook emotion. That said, as a rule, I tend to avoid double-digit favorites. Lean NE but will not be playing this game.
CIN (CLE) - Strong - I’ve come to really like seeing public action disparity like this as of late: CIN opened +3 now +2 off 20% of the public tickets. Sharp move through and through. The algo likes CLE by only 2, which is the cherry on top! Divisional game, roughly even QB skill level, and clear value on CIN. I’m playing the Bengals this week.
LAC (@KC) - Moderate - The public is all over KC at a 5:1 clip and the line’s moved from KC -7 to -9. That doesn’t seem like enough to me. I think this might set up for a LAC shocker, or at least back door cover. This similar situation presented itself in Week 17 last season. NO, laying ~8 points, was playing CAR and while the algo strongly favored NO, CAR eventually won the game outright. I’m not ready to prognosticate the Chargers as the winners here but it does seem like a good opportunity to go contrarian and take LAC.
NYJ (BUF) - Moderate - Yet another game that has seen the market move through the key number of 3 even as the public is backing the other side. NYJ opened as 4.5-point underdogs and even as the public is coming to the counter to bet BUF at a 3:1 clip, the line has crept down to NYJ +1.5, where the SuperContest is. Again, the theme this week is to pay attention to the market movement over the algo. In any other Sunday, the algo would’ve liked BUF by 7.5, but with BUF having already wrapped up a playoff spot and the Jets playing at home, the money seems to like NYJ. As a short favorite, I like them to win outright as well.
TEN (@HOU) - Moderate - With a potential playoff spot on the line for TEN, the public and sharp money appear to be pushing this line towards TEN from the opening line of TEN +1 to now TEN -3.5, and climbing. I actually like HOU here as it is a #6 algo play this week. However, HOU, having wrapped up the division, will likely rest players (including Watson), making this a prime spot for a TEN team I have pretty evenly matched on a neutral field. TEN or pass.
JAX (IND) - Weak - Public is strongly favoring the Colts and pushed this line through the key numbers of 0 and 3 off 80% tickets. The stars have miraculously aligned here as the algo, the model aggregate, the market consensus, and the SuperContest all agree! This suggests there’s absolutely zero value on either side. The only remaining angle is the “fade the public” angle. However, that’s not enough for JAX to creep into my top plays this week. Pass.
DAL (WSH) - Weak - See MIA-NE game above. The only difference here is that the Cowboys must win (and need help) to make the playoffs. WSH has shown life lately and who knows how the Cowboys players are taking to winning for Garrett? Algo likes DAL by 12, SuperContest has DAL by 11. I like the contrarian side, WSH, in this spot.
NYG (PHI) - Weak - What Eagles team will show up this week? They certainly played well enough last week to take the wheel of the NFC East but the Giants are playing for pride and the few weeks of rest for Daniel “Danny Dimes” Jones has him playing with more confidence. The algo likes NYG by only 2.3 so I see value here. Even with a 60/40 split towards PHI, the line’s moved a full point towards NYG (currently +4). There’s no guarantee Philly secures the division with a win, much less covering the SuperContest line of -4.5. G-Men on the card this week.
SF (@SEA) - Weak - Greater than 70% of tickets on SF pushing the line from a pick ‘em to SF -3.5. With such a difference between the market line and the algo, there’s obviously something I haven’t considered. Yes, SEA has the weaker Pythag W/L differential but they’re playing at home and if they win, they’ll take the division from SF on the head-to-head tiebreaker. SF has had a great season, but I think they fall short here and SEA wins outright. SEA with the field goal and the hook is the play.
ARI (@LAR) - Weak - As of this publishing, the market consensus is unavailable as the books awaiting Kyler Murray’s hamstring status once the Cardinals’ injury report is released. Algo points to LAR winning by over 8 points, while the line is only at a FG. The analysts at ESPN think ARI will avenge the Week 12 beatdown. With the Rams now at home, I disagree here. I like the Rams -3.
PIT (@BAL) - Moderate - I love this rivalry. The Ravens are one of my favorite NFL teams and they have a fierce rivalry with the Steelers. The line’s moved towards PIT, now -2. The Ravens are likely to put in the scrubs to save their team for a deep playoff run but with the Steelers banged up, led by second/third-string QB, it’s hard to say they’re the right side here. In the squarest pick of the week, I like BAL getting 2.
N.B. As you may have noticed, the algorithm suggestions ran contrary to the sharp and contrarian sides I identified. Week 17 is a crapshoot.
Unofficial plays: