Week 16 2020 picks
Merry Christmas!
Two weeks left! Here are the up-to-date probabilities of finishing in-the-money, with last week’s performance in parentheses:
Entry A (3-1-1): 97% (+20% from last week), 55% probability of a top-5 finish (+27% from last week)
Entry B (2-3): Probabilistically eliminated.
Entry C (2-2-1): 15% (unchanged from last week)
Entry D (4-1): 7% (+6% from last week)
Entry D went full contrarian and took the Lions (+11), Jets (+17.5), and Bengals (+12.5) on Sunday and were handsomely rewarded with 2 outright wins! In doing so, they boosted their outside chances of finishing in-the-money by 6%. Entry C treaded water with the top-25 players with a 50% performance last week. Both entries likely need at least 8/10 in these next two weeks. Let’s see what the slate of games offer us.
Raw algorithm picks:
DET +9.5 ★★⚐
DEN +3 ★★⇩⚐
MIN +7 ★
CAR +2.5 ★
CIN +8 ★
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
MIN (@NO) - Weak - The Christmas Day game. The Saints were lucky to get the backdoor push last week versus the Chiefs, while the Vikings lost at home versus the Bears as short road ‘dogs. No surprise the Saints are catching nearly 2:1 of the public interest and the line’s shifted predictably in that direction: opening Vikes +6.5 and now getting 7 at the consensus number, where the contest offers it. There’s very slight value versus the algo in this case: algo recommends Vikes at anything more than 6. I think the Vikings have lost the public trust which is a good time to buy low and I expect a small performance degradation with Drew Brees back for the second week. I’m tempted to play this one.
DET (TB) - Moderate - Another great buy-low opportunity here with the Lions at home. The public is chomping at the bit to back the Bucs against the pathetic Lions at at 70/30 ratio. Even with the lopsided action, the line hasn’t moved, suggesting there’s some heft backing the Lions. The algo shows this game at a modest Bucs -3.3 so laying 9.5 is way too many.
SF (@ARI) - Moderate - This game opened Cards -5 and hasn’t moved even though they’re getting 4:1 tickets. On a dead number this would undoubtedly move to at least 6 maybe 6.5. When I’ve seen public action like this in other games, it’s usually the sharps cleaning up a poor opening number. The algo suggests there’s little to no value to be had with the ‘Niners. While from the Cards’ perspective, anything up to -6.5 has value so to see the line stuck at 5 even though the public is all over the Cardinals tells me the 49ers might be the sharp side.
JAX (CHI) - Strong - I’m taking my profit on the Bears this week. They were a good team to back the last few weeks as the market was slow to adjust to their improved play and staunch defense but the money is coming in by the truckload to back the Jags even though public tickets are backing the Bears. In fact, the money is on the Jags at 10x that of the Bears even though the ticket count for the Bears outnumbers that of the Jags almost 2x! The algo likes the Jags here getting at least 6 at home so the hook on the full TD is too much value to pass on. Jaaaags.
NYG (@BAL) - Moderate - Slight sharp move towards the G-Men here. Line opened Ravens -11 and is now -10.5 while the Ravens are taking over 60% of the public interest. Laying 10 is right where the algo thinks the Ravens ought to be so I’m chalking this up to a “clean the board” line move from Tuesday’s opener and not a de-facto sharp position. In general, the fade the public darling angle has historically covered more than the buy-low on a bad team one. Three weeks ago the Giants were the new darlings of the talking heads, as if they had turned a corner. Only to lay two eggs in the 2 weeks since upsetting the Seahawks on the road. If I’m going to back a high variance team, I want a competent QB at the helm to give my bet a chance under 2 minutes. Pass.
ATL (@KC) - Strong - Ok, here’s another double-digit dog in a similar setup like the Giants-Ravens game before, but with the classic sharp signature. The line opened Chiefs -12.5, has moved 2 full points towards the Falcons even though the latter team is getting slightly fewer than 50% of the public tickets. Here, since the algo suggests bettors backing the Chiefs ought to do so firmly up to -13, the reverse line move is a clear signal the sharps are taking the Falcons and not just cleaning up a bad number. The Falcons enjoy the Pythag advantage and while their playoff hopes have been dashed long ago, they have veteran playmakers that will keep the backdoor wide open. It might be my strongest play of the week if not for being played in Kansas City. Still getting 11 has a ton of value in this spot.
NYJ (CLE) - Strong - Man, I really don’t like coming back to the well with the Jets but they seem to be building momentum and no longer have the lure of a top draft pick slowing their winning drive having got the winless monkey off their back last week! The public is 4:1 on the Browns and the line’s moved slightly towards the Jets! Is it a sharp move opposite the public squares. Once again, like the Falcons-Chiefs game, with the algo pointing towards a line move higher in the direction of the favorite, coupled with the heavy public interest, one would expect the line to move with the public. The fact that it hasn’t, and given the contest offering at Jets +9.5, it seems like the right side might be with the Gang Green. To note, the Jets also own the Pythag advantage.
DEN (@LAC) - Weak - Yes, the algo likes the Broncos against a divisional rival but there seems to be zero sharp interest pushing back against the public taking the Chargers here. The line has moved to the FG hook from opening at 2.5. The algo shows this matchup closer to Chargers -1 whereas the contest is making backers lay 3. The Chargers do have the Pythag advantage, which we’ve seen empirically is worth a solid few points. Question is for this matchup whether this makes up for the lack of value on the home team? To me, both of these teams have had inherent value through the bulk of the season and that kind of cancels out when they’re matched up as opponents. My gut likes the Chargers and that’s why I’m noting the Broncos and the algo value a contrarian side.
CAR (@WSH) - Weak - Believe it or not, I actually have the Panthers rated nearly 2 full points higher than Washington. Since they’re on the road here, we’d expect them to be slight favorites. Of course, having lost like 8 out of their last 9 and with only their pride to play for, they’re not; Washington is laying 2.5 in the contest. This is noteworthy because not only does the algo show the Panthers with the value, the contest anticipates even more Washington backers over the holiday weekend since the current consensus is Washington -1.5. The opening move from -1 off ~60% preference seems about right. Two of the top defensive ROY candidates are playing for the Panthers in this game. The raw algo isn’t always right but I do think it’s anchoring us appropriately here. I think the Panthers will win outright.
LAR (@SEA) - Moderate - Even though they lost to the previously winless Jets last week, the wise money is backing the Rams visiting their divisional rival, Seahawks for the NFC West lead. Slight sharp move from the opener of Seahawks -2 to -1.5, where the contest has it, though they’re gathering 55% of the public bets. The algo thinks the opening number is the right number for this game and therefore I’m more inclined to trust the market move, validating the algo value versus the contest line on the Rams.
CIN (@HOU) - Moderate - The market line is way off the algo handicap which tells me I’m missing something here. I’m going to follow Uncle Colin’s advice and “take the obvious pick off the board”.
Unofficial Plays: