Week 15 2020 picks
Three weeks remain and the prize is ripe for the taking! By my estimates, here are the entries’ current probabilities of ending the season in-the-money:
Entry A: 77% (27% probability of a top-5 finish)
Entry B: <1%
Entry C: 15%
Entry D: 1%
So you’re saying there’s a chance! Check out The Analytics for the latest final ranking projections.
Raw algorithm picks:
CAR +8.5 ★★⇧⚐
DET +11 ★★⚐
CIN +12.5 ★★⇧
DAL +3 ★
PHI +6 ★
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
LAC (@LV) - Moderate - This is a borderline sharp play on Thursday Night Football. The line opened Raiders and the hook (-3.5) but has been cleaned up to -3 as of Thursday AM. The public is on the Raiders at a 57% clip yet the line’s moved towards the Chargers. Normally, while I do think sharps have cleaned this number up, the contest offering, Chargers +3, is right where my numbers handicap the game (Chargers +2.8). Around key numbers, particularly when action moves a line to a key number stop (like 3, 7, & 6), it takes a lot more momentum to move off the number than what got the market to the number. It doesn’t seem like this is a heavily bet game so doubtful if we’ll see any movement off 3. What I have noticed is that the Pythag advantage indicator is appearing in many of the sharp games down the stretch here. The Chargers own it in this matchup. However, the Raiders trigger the lost-last-week-while-opponent-won signal (I need a better name for that). Clearly, the squares aren’t overreacting to that as they’re coming back to the counter to back the home team. All that said, I’m leaning towards Chargers but will monitor the line action up until game time. If the line moves to Chargers +2.5 or better, I’m upgrading it to a strong auto play.
DEN (BUF) - Moderate - This game kicks off on Saturday. Both teams performed well last week. The Broncos were my strongest play of the week last week, but late line movement spooked me from laying the house on them and I feel a bit foolish for that. The Bills played one of their best games of the season last week against the Steelers and the public took notice. As of Thursday, 2:1 tickets have been written for the Bills! That is high—certainly worth taking a contrarian second look at. In terms of the line, the market seems centered around 6 so maybe there’s slight value versus the contest line of Bills -6.5. The Amos transformed line suggests the opening number, Bills -5, was fair from the Broncos’ point of view, but the market move to Bills -6, presents equitably from the Bills’ point of view. At the moment I’m not on either side here.
CAR (@GB) - Strong - The algo likes the Panthers in this matchup. They haven’t looked very good lately and even getting barely more than 50% of the public action, the line’s moved down a full point to -8.5, where the contest has it. The algo shows a lot of value on the Panthers versus the number and they also enjoy both the lost-last-week-while-opponent-won signal and the Pythag advantage. Does it turn my gut to go against the Packers at home? Yes. Yes it does. But now is the time to stick to the process. A Friday and early Saturday line move further towards the Panthers would be great validation. Right now Panthers are the play.
CHI (@MIN) - Strong - Who knew Foles’ absence would fuel Trubisky’s resurgence? The Bears have a great defense (top quarter of the league per DVOA) but Trubisky’s been playing better than he was before he was benched and the sharps have taken notice: even getting 44% of the public action, the line’s moved from Vikings -3.5 to -3. Oh, did I mention Stefon Diggs is featured on the cover of ESPN the magazine? That’s definitely going to trigger the availability bias of undiscerning bettors. The algo suggests 3 has slight value and with the sharp line move I think the Bears are a play.
TB (@ATL) - Strong - This is a rare event, where the sharps seem to be backing the Bucs, a favorite! The line opened Bucs -3.5 and has been bet to -5.5 (contest offers -6), while the public is split down the middle pointing to money on the favorite. The algo even thinks laying a full TD has value. Two things to watch out for if backing the Bucs: a) the Falcons own the Pythag advantage and b) per Football Outsiders, the Bucs own the highest game-to-game volatility of any in the league. I’m going to back Tampa Bay here and hope for positive variance.
WSH (SEA) - Moderate - Only a few weeks ago, Washington was a top-5 lowest rated team. They’ve shot up my power ratings with a string of recent, solid performances. Uncle Colin likes Washington in this matchup and they find some resistance at +6.5 while catching just over 40% of the public tickets. The algo prefers the Seahawks -6 yet the contest only has this as Seahawks -5! A deeper analysis of this says there’s something the current market knows that neither the contest knew when setting the lines nor my algo has accounted for. My gut says Washington is the right side and they do have the Pythag advantage, but I will likely need a line move to -6 or -5.5 before backing them.
NO (KC) - Moderate - Obviously the game of the week. Given the high profile nature of this matchup, the fact that the number hasn’t budged off 3 even though the Chiefs are getting a strong (60%+) majority of the public tickets says there’s some heft backing the Saints. Drew Brees has been reported as starting this game. My handicap for this one is dead-on 3 (Saints +2.9, Chiefs -3.0). If I was obligated to play this one, I’d be on the Saints here as the higher rated team per DVOA, carrying the lost-last-week-while-opponent-won flag, own the Pythag advantage, and seem to be the contrarian angle. As it stands, no value per the algo, but all other indicators point towards the Saints getting points at home. Backing the Saints is tempting but I’m going to let the inherent hedge of differentiating my picks take a side in this one and not play this game. Therefore, with the competition likely backing the Chiefs, I can get the value of the Saints covering while avoiding the risk of backing them.
NYG (CLE) - Moderate - Ahem….3:1 tickets on the Browns!? I mean the Giants laid a huge egg last week versus the Cardinals. It was a misread of the market for sure. But anything above 75% public support against the spread is something to consider fading. The Browns are clearly the better team here and the market move off the 4 opener to 6.5 is a bridge too far. Heck, even the contest is only offering 4 and the hook, which is right where the algo expected the line to be (3.5-5.5). If I had availability to bet the market number (6.5) I would and backing the Giants here would be a straight number value play. As I wrote last week, the Browns have been the luckiest team in the league per my Pythagorean expectations and so the G-Men own the advantage here. I think it’s telling the contest is only offering 4.5 and I’m tempted to take the Giants.
Remaining games coming this weekend.
Unofficial Plays: