Week 11 2019 picks
Alright! Here we go. Putting the process to work. Each week in the NFL season I will provide my thoughts on the games worth considering against the spread. This week I am giving these out before the weekend when most of the betting action takes place. Please note that “Sharp/Contrarian” sides may change up to game time. In the coming weeks I will try to post on Saturdays to capture as much of the line movement as possible.
Without further adieu…
Raw algorithm picks:
JAX +2.5 (@IND)
CHI +6.5 (@LAR)
DET +6.5 (DAL)
NYJ +1 (@WSH)
MIA +6 (BUF)
I like to discern the market sentiment before my final selections. My process for this begins with measuring the line movement against the popularity of the game side. If the public is heavily betting one side but the line movement trends towards the other side, I can reason that “sharp” money is behind that movement. It’s not a foolproof method of teasing out the “sharp” side. Yet following these plays have cashed at a clip of 61% (through Week 10)! I won’t deep-dive every game, only the ones that have noteworthy action at the time of this post. Here they are.
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
CLE (PIT) - Weak - No line movement, though 60% of the public wagers on PIT +3. My line shows CLE -1 so laying 3 in the SuperContest and a consensus estimate that agrees with my model suggests a play at PIT +3.
JAX (@IND) - Moderate - Line moved from +3.5 at open to +2.5, while the percent of public money is split 50/50. Since 3 is a key number in the NFL (as with 7 and to a lesser extent 6 and 10), the movement of a full point across 3 is noteworthy. The algorithm likes this play even at +2.5 so I will earmark this game as a play.
DEN (@MIN) - Weak - Line hasn’t moved but 2:1 public tickets on MIN. My algo has MIN -9.5, so I see a full point of value here plus the model consensus matches my estimate. With MIN off a high-profile win at DAL on Sunday Night Football (SNF) last week and DEN off a bye, this could be decent value for DEN plus the 10.5.
HOU (@BAL) - Moderate - BAL opened -5 and tickets are coming in at nearly 2:1 on BAL, yet the line has moved from -5 to -4. I show HOU with the value here getting only 3 and the model consensus seems to agree more with the opening line. Unless I can’t find other games to play, I’ll probably pass on this one due to conflicting signals.
WSH (NYJ) - Weak - Line hasn’t moved from the opening number (NYJ +1.5) but over 70% of the tickets are on NYJ. My algo suggests NYJ by 0.5 but the consensus thinks the current market line is appropriate. Due to the mercurial nature of these teams, I will likely not be playing it.
CAR (ATL) - Moderate - Line has moved from the key number of 7 to 5.5 in favor of CAR. CAR has been getting twice the volume of betting tickets compared to ATL. This may be a trap for ATL bettors as they are coming off a thoroughly impressive win over NO last week while CAR has the stinging memories of being stood-up at the goal line against GB, failing to cover the spread. My algo favors CAR and the consensus estimate is roughly in-line with laying the 5.5.
MIA (BUF) - Moderate - Line shifted towards MIA +6 from +7.5 even as BUF gathering 64% of the public tickets. I like MIA +4.8 and the consensus agrees with the current line at +6. My only reservation is that MIA has been gaining a lot of public attention with 4 straight ATS covers. Nonetheless, MIA +6 is in consideration this week.
SF (ARI) - Weak - This is more of a “steam” move from -14.5 at open to -11.5. SuperContest line has SF -11. My algo shows SF -9.8 and consensus estimate has SF closer to a 2 touchdown favorite. Clearly conflicting signals. The kicker is the fact that 4:1 tickets (>80%) are on ARI. I’d be tempted to take SF and lay the points if I didn’t have a rule against laying double digits in the NFL.
DAL (@DET) - Weak - 60% of tickets on DAL moving the line from -2.5 to -3. No conviction here from the consensus estimate or the market. This is the #1-rated game per my algo this week (DET +6.5) but without a strong conviction from the sharps, I will follow the rule to take the obvious pick off the board. No play.
PHI (@NE) - Moderate - Classic contrarian play here. From the open at -3 to being steamed to -3.5 behind public tickets at a 4:1 clip and my algorithm showing -3 as the right number, I am interested in PHI plus the points.
LAR (CHI) - Weak - CHI steamed from +7.5 to +6.5 off of ~70% public tickets. Both the algorithm and the consensus estimates like CHI plus the points. While the Rams have struggled as of late, they do seem to be the better team and arguably have the better coach/QB combo. CHI will probably be the play.
LAC (KC) - Moderate - This game is being played in Mexico. This has the same characteristics as the PHI-NE game. With KC off a bad beat but still largely a public team, I feel like passing on this game.
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When the dust settles, here are my unofficial plays: