Week 8 2021 picks
Last week was light on the picks but we ended up having one of the better weeks of the season.
Raw algorithm picks (last week 4-1, season 19-16):
DET +3.5 ★★
DAL -1.5 ★
SEA -3.5 ★
NYG +9.5 ★
NYJ +10.5 ★
Preferred sides:
CLE (PIT) - Weak - The contest offers this game at Steelers +3.5 versus the algo suggested number of 4.4. I’m kind of thinking this line is set sharply this week. For one, as a divisional game, I’m expecting this to come down to a field goal and why the visitors getting the hook here is the side worth taking. Second, while the Football Outsiders cone-heads agree with my number (CLE -4.9), The Athletic’s DPR shades the Browns, as do the sharp bettors. Slightly more tickets on the Browns (53%) but the line’s moved from opening -4.5 to -4. All in all, a mixed bag and probably not worth putting action on.
CAR (@ATL) - Moderate - I like the Panthers here. The public is backing the Falcons at a 60% clip but the line’s moved from -3.5 to -3, towards the visiting Panthers. This is trending towards where I have this game handicapped (Falcons -2.1) and the Football Outsiders fellas agree too showing this game at nearly a pick ‘em. The third respected model, DPR, doesn’t show as much value but also leans Panthers. Given the model agreement and the line movement, I’m going to back the Panthers.
NYJ (CIN) - Weak - I guess the time to back the lowly Jets is when I want to avoid them even though all signs point to them having the value. The algo, of course, likes them again here. At home, I think they ought to be getting at most 7.5 while the contest offers this at 10.5 and the market’s pushed this north of 11 as of this writing. an insane 8:1 public tickets are behind the Bengals here and I know they’re the most popular survivor pick (straight up). The other two models point in different directions, which leads me to pass but don’t be surprised if the Gang Green Jets sneak through the back door.
IND (TEN) - Moderate - One of the best plays of the week here is backing Ronald Weasley against a division foe. From a numbers standpoint, the contest has this game at Colts -1 versus our Amos line of -0.7, so fairly priced. Since the contest lines are static and posted on Wednesdays—4 days ahead of the closing line—in games where they anticipate large line moves, they’ll try to get ahead of that movement as to not give players an arbitrage opportunity. Here though, they may have overcorrected as the market has settled at Colts -2.5. The contest clearly thought there’d be more interest in the Titans but respected money seems to be keeping this line buoyant. The respected models are split reducing my confidence that the Colts are the right side, but I’m going to play them anyway.
CHI (SF) - Weak - The line’s been frozen here at 4 all week amidst 60% public tickets on the Bears at home. The line movement, or lack thereof with some lopsided action, would lead me to think the value rests with the home ‘dog here but that might not be the case as the models all converge on the ‘Niners as the side worth backing. My gut leans Bears as the side with the lower public perception but I haven’t had a good read on them all season. (In fact, I’m not even sure I’ve won a bet with them yet). For those reasons, I’m passing.
PHI (@DET) - Weak - Oddly enough, has the public finally come to appreciate the effort put forth by the Lions week in and week out? Sure seems like it based on the line this week. This one opened Eagles -1 and was quickly bet up to 3.5, while the favorite has only garnered <30% of the public interest. The respected models agree that 3.5 is a fair line and perhaps the opening line correction was just that and the frozen move at 3.5 is to keep the hook on the favorite to dissuade the sharps from backing the Eagles? Amos suggests this line at 2.2 so I see some value on the Lions but with these conflicting signals with two teams that are crapshoots, I’m passing.
NE (@LAC) - Moderate - The market report on this game all depends from where you’ve soured your data. Turns out my two most relied upon sources of info give completely conflicting accounts of where this game opened. I’m going to go with the one I trust more and say that based on the opening number of Chargers -6 we have some pretty legitimate reverse line movement towards the visiting Patriots now at 4.5. Both respected models love the Pats, while Amos is not quite has high, and thinks the opening number is truer. From the talking heads standpoint, its like the Chargers love is lost—a total reversal from a mere 3 weeks ago when they were a top-5 team! Since the contest offers this one at 6 and the market’s down to 4.5, this is one of the rare times I’m going to go against the algo and play the number.
SEA (JAX) - Moderate - My System 1 thinking told me to back the Jags (since their narrative’s been totally reversed, opposite the Chargers, above). But then I thought about it some more and I’m not convinced. For one, the algo favors the Seahawks and all action has to be in reference to the algo! Two, the respected models lean Seahawks too! Three, my eyes tell me Geno Smith is serviceable. I mean I know they played the Steelers last week but they covered! Now I’ve got a Jags team that has to fly the hypotenuse-length of the country and play in a stadium with one of the best home field crowds? The public and I are thinking the same thing since 3:1 of them are on the Seahawks. I don’t get the line movement towards the Jags; there must be something I’m missing here and so I’ll be laying off this one.
MIN (DAL) - Strong - Hard to say whether it’s Dak’s calf uncertainty or what but the line’s been moving steadily towards the Vikings -3 while only garnering one out of every three tickets. The contest has this game at Vikings +1.5 so there’s a ton of closing line value here. This has been indicated as a sharp play per my sources and there does seem to be differentiation versus the contest entries, which points to the Vikings as the right side. Both respected models converge on the Vikes, while my model says a line of 3.5 is more fair. Dak’s gametime decision could ultimately determine how much true value there is on the Vikings in this one but I’m going to take the 1.5 and the outright win here.
NYG (KC) - Weak - Incredibly, of the top 30 contest players, 19 of them have selected the Chiefs versus zero for the G-Men! I mean, we wrote a few weeks ago about how teams were figuring out Mahomes and that the Chiefs looked like a shell of their past but I guess this week is the “buy low” spot. The models straddle the contest line of Chiefs -9.5, while the Amos line suggests more in the range of 5-7. I don’t know who either of these teams are right now so I’m going to stop here and move on.
NO (TB) - Moderate - The contest offers this line at Saints +5.5. Amos and the other two respected models converge on 4.5-5 as the right number so there’s slight value there. I think a divisional game like this is bound to be close and getting the points at home, with a decent New Orleans home crowd I’d like to back the Saints here. Fortunately, the public remains enamored with Brady’s Bucs as about 3:1 tickets are riding on them laying the points.