Week 6 2020 picks
Welcome back to the picks after a brief hiatus. Let’s quickly check in on the contest entries through Week 5:
Entry A (Alex): 13-12
Entry B (Sean): 15-9-1
Entry C (Bryan): 14-11
Entry D (Alex & Erik): 13-11-1
So ~56% through Week 5. Solid. Good news is that we’re within striking distance of the leaders. Not-as-good news is that the inevitable regression to the mean is relentlessly gunning for us.
In fact, something else happened over the past two weeks that I thought I’d share. Our Entry A all-time ATS record has (for the moment) pulled even with Uncle Colin’s Blazin’ 5. I’ve been tracking Colin’s picks since the 2016 season and he’d been really hot in seasons prior to that too. Our all-time ATS record now sits at 193-159-13 (55%).
Oh, and Legendary Lauren is back at it with a 5-for-5 week carrying her all the way into 36th place. C’mon man!
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They say the NFL season can be broken down into four 4-week blocks. Week 6 is the second week of block 2 (lap 2 for me as a former track miler) and my thinking goes that weeks 5 through 12 are good contrarian opportunities because now the public has put their eyeballs on a few games, they feel they know the teams—wrong!
Having said that, you’ve probably noticed the contrarian angle hasn’t been very profitable lately. I researched my historical picks over the last 4 seasons and determined the base rate for selecting underdogs was ~70%. This season, that rate has increased to a whopping 80%! That’s 4 out of 5 picks! That’s not a balanced approach and definitely—dare I say—biased 😳. The “‘dog or pass” bent will always underpin the algo but for the rest of 2020 you’ll notice a sprinkling of curated favorites on the list of official plays.
I’ve also added some other visual cues to isolate games with potential value. When a team lost the previous week and where their opponent has won, this game will be “flagged” (⚐).
Now for the Week 6 games…
Raw algorithm picks:
BUF +3.5 ★★
MIN -3.5 ★★
NYJ +8.5 ★⚐
GB EV ★
TEN -3 ★
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
HOU (@TEN) - Weak - I think this is a bad spot for TEN. They just played on Tuesday, in a standalone spot, against another previously undefeated team, now only to host a divisional rival. My numbers show value on TEN here (-7.5) but the market has settled on TEN -3.5, while the contest line is only at 3. This is a classic underdog spot to win the game outright. Could the public (60% on TEN) and the consensus market be overreacting to the short week? Maybe, but I’m leaning HOU with the points to win outright.
MIN (ATL) - Moderate - The public likes MIN here at a 2:1 clip. Hard to back anything ATL is doing this season and the line’s moved predictably to -4 from opening at -3.5. I’m split here. My fair value numbers suggest MIN as a nearly 5-point favorite so laying 3 and the hook seems palatable. However, there must be something I’m missing. Because the contest lines are released mid-week, I’ve noticed they try to anticipate the market movement. In this case, the fact that the market has surpassed the market line makes me nervous but I’m going to forge ahead with the favorite at home.
CLE (@PIT) - Weak - This is a curious game. Word on the street is that Baker Mayfield is dealing with some injury ailments yet the line has shifted towards the Browns to +3.5 even though the public seems to be on the Steelers. Not thrilled about playing this game.
CIN (@IND) - Moderate - My algo shows slight value on CIN here. Seems like the money is leaning towards the Bengals and at some books the line’s moved in that direction but frankly it seems like a matchup not drawing a ton of action. Pass.
BAL (@PHI) - Weak - This line’s been steamed heavily from the opener of 7 to now 9.5 favoring the Ravens. Again, the contest line has BAL at -7.5, while my number has BAL at -6. Hard to lay -9.5 on the road but no bone in my body wants to rely on Wentz for the backdoor cover. Colin’s had a few self-described “crappy weeks” lately but for what it’s worth, he’s on BAL here.
DEN (NE) - Strong - This game carries the risk of being postponed but let’s proceed as if it’s going to kick off as scheduled. There’s been a lot of chatter about how Belichick dominates young QBs. This has been overblown I think. The market has shifted towards DEN (+8.5) even though the public is 2:1 on NE. Coupled with my fair algo value at around 2 points I think DEN is a strong play this week as a double-digit home ‘dog.
NYJ (@MIA) - Moderate - This is an ugly pick. The Jets’ star RB, Bell, left the team in a huff. The rest of the team is a terrible on-the-field product. But the public has overreacted to the Dolphin’s impressive win over the 49ers last week on the road. The fair value seems to be closer to a TD, while the contest is offering 8.5. This is the most contrarian play of the week but I like it.
GB (@TB) - Weak - My algo suggests GB -1.7 so the market seems to be catching up to my number. However, 7 out of 10 public players agree and seem to be reason for the vector of line movement. Since the contest is offering this game at a pick ‘em, there’s some value found here. Lean GB.
SF (LAR) - Moderate - This number is firmly on the Rams -3. Public is generally split though slightly tilted towards the Rams. My number has the Rams as a -1.8 favorite. Lean SF.
Unofficial Plays:
MIN -3.5
SF +3
HOU -3
DEN +10
GB EV
Look! Two favorites and a pick ‘em!