Week 17 2020 picks

We’ve made it to the end of the season!

Here is the performance summary of our 4 entries to date:

Entry A: 48-31-1 (60%),

2.2% chance of winning, 33% top-3, 87% top 5, 100% chance of finishing ITM

Entry B: 39-40-1 (49%)

Entry C: 43-36-1 (54%),

18% chance of finishing ITM

Entry D: 41-37-2 (52.5%),

1% chance of finishing ITM

Head over to The Analytics to see how each entry compares to their base rate performance, other benchmark models, and their predicted finishing place.

Week 17 is classically difficult to handicap. You’ve got to deftly handle key player absences, motivation (or lack thereof), and the pressure to perform. In fact, our average Week 17 score is a paltry 1.5 points! We’re aiming to blow that out of the water this year. Here’s how we’re going to do it:

• Follow the process. Last time we were top-5 heading into Week 17, we followed the algorithm suggestions heavily. It didn’t work out quite the way we’d hoped but we can’t forget, even in Week 17, we’re still dealing with an irrationally exuberant public that creates value-taking opportunities.

• Respect the market. We’ve gained a newfound respect for the market action this season and we plan on incorporating it this week.

• Lean on teams with something to play for. The “must win” fallacy is real but it’s better to back a team with a reason to compete.

So with that, let’s look at what we’re up against with this week’s slate of games

Raw algorithm picks:

CAR +6.5 ★★⇧

DEN +2.5 ★★

PIT +9 ★⇧

LAR +2.5 ★

KC +3.5 ★⇩

Sharp/Contrarian Sides:

PIT (@CLE) - Weak - The look-ahead number on Tuesday was Browns -4 and promptly bet up to -10 with the news Big Ben (and presumably other starters) will be resting with little to play for but seed positioning. My numbers have the Browns rated not even a point above the Steelers and even when factoring in a very modest HFA, I would’ve expected this line to be slightly lower than -4, implying a 6 point adjustment for resting starters. At the moment there seems to be some decent public support for the Steelers at the key number of 10. The contest is offering this game at Browns -9, which appears to have arbitrage value versus the market line buuuut referencing the algo and including the 6-pt market adjustment, suggests value on the Browns laying less than 8, which they’re not. And then there’s part deux of the infamous Mason Rudolph vs. Myles Garrett showdown, which should inject some passion into the game. I’m not thrilled about playing a team not fielding their best team but the value here is on the Steelers and Mike Tomlin will want his team to play hard to shake off the recent stretch of poor play heading into the playoffs.

NYG (DAL) - Weak - Somehow this opening number had the Giants favored but that was quickly cleaned up by the sharps and squares and now sits at Cowboys -1.5, which is right about where the algo handicaps this one (-1). The kicker here is that the public is all over the Cowboys, who’ve played well the last three weeks, at a clip of 3:1. It’s not sharp but it would take a ton of guts to go the contrarian route and back the Giants. Pass.

MIA (@BUF) - Strong - Oddly enough, as of Wednesday night the Bills hadn’t made it public yet whether they’ll be playing their A or B team. With reports coming out Thursday AM point towards the AFC East Division champions will rest key starters, finding value in this game is a question of how many points the Bills’ B team are worth. Apparently, the market is figuring that out too as the game is now off the board. The early opener offered Bills -5.5, which is actually near my handicap for this game after adjusting for resting players. The market has moved towards the Dolphins even though the majority of public tickets are on the Bills. The contest is giving 2.5 points to ‘Fins backers which, like the Steelers game, appears to be a small market arbitrage opportunity (since the market had been at Dolphins +1.5 but is likely to favor them once the market adapts to the news). The Dolphins have a playoff spot on the line while the Bills have the 2nd-seed dangling in front of them (but can lock it in even if the Bills lose and the Browns beat the Steelers). The Dolphins have been a strong team this year and I like their chances of winning outright so I’m taking the points.

NYJ (@NE) - Weak - Both teams here have nothing but pride on the line. The Patriots have looked terrible recently compared to the Jets who are on a 2-game winning streak! The early sharp action dropped the look-ahead line of Jets +10 down to +3 but if using the algo as our perception litmus test, it appears the public has taken too deep an infatuation with the Gang Green. Fair value seems to be at NE -4. My gut says the Jets but the numbers don’t support it so I’m going to pass.

ATL (@TB) - Strong - As of mid-week, the public are backing the full-strength Bucs at a 70/30 ratio, while the market line has driven this line towards the Falcons and through the key number of 7 to 6.5, where the contest is offering it. The Bucs have some motivation to avoid slipping to the 6th-seed in the NFC with a win but a win doesn’t mean a cover. On the flip side, the Falcons have nothing but spoiler to play. We’ve adjusted this line towards the Bucs by 1.5 points to account for the motivation advantage yet we note the Pythag advantage goes to the Falcons here. If there’s value versus the algorithm, it’s with the Bucs but factoring in the sharp action leads me to stay off this game.

CIN (@BAL) - Moderate - The Ravens need a win to make the playoffs, while the Bengals only have their divisional animosity to try to prevent that from happening. The Ravens have one of the league’s best special teams units but they’ll be without their starting punter for this game. The market opened Ravens -12.5, where the contest has it, and the market number is rising to -13 from 70%+ public interest. The algo firmly thinks 10.5 is as far as the Ravens ought to get so 2 full points of value is tempting no doubt. In their first matchup this season, the Bengals could only muster 3 points of offense so I’m not rushing to take the value with them here but they are on the board as a potential play.

CHI (GB) - Strong - If nothing else, the fact that I had been waffling between rating this game a Strong play versus a Moderate play tells you where the public is at—sure enough nearly 3:1 tickets are backing the MVP-favorite, Aaron Rodgers. However, the line has shifted slightly towards the Bears by 0.5-points suggesting respected interest on the underdog. The value on this game is solely on the Bears by a full point using the algo’s numbers. Both teams have an interest in winning this game: Packers can clinch the top seed in the NFC while the Bears can earn a playoff spot. The Bears have a top-10 defense per DVOA and have been the most consistent teams all season. Rodgers can run up the score quickly but I’ll take the Bears and the points at home in a divisional rivalry.

SF (SEA) - Strong - This might be the sharpest play of the week pending the weekend action of course. The public is on the NFC West Division champions at an astounding 5:1 clip (as of Wednesday). You don’t think the defending NFC champions are upset their season got blown up and want to take it out one last time on their bitter rivals, the Seahawks? C’mon man! The market line opened Seahawks -6.5, had moved all the way down to -5, but has settled at -5.5. The contest is offering -6, a strong rebuke against the public leverage and giving ‘Niners backers a valuable arbitrage opportunity. Whatever value the algo has on the ‘Hawks, it’s completely due to the Week 17 “motivation” adjustment. Aside from last week, the ONLY time the Seahawks beat an opponent by more than 1 score and that wasn’t winless at the time was when these two teams met in Seattle back in Week 8—and before that they hadn’t even played in a game that was decided by more than 1 score since Week 1!! They’re not blowing out anyone. While the Seahawks are probably going to sweep the season series, me and the respected money are coming in hot on this game being close, maybe even OT! 49ers are the play.

LAC (@KC) - Weak - One could argue the Chiefs have been on cruise control for the bulk of the season. They’re 7-0 straight up but 0-6-1 against the number! With the top seed in the AFC locked up and Andy Reid resting his star players, this line opened Chargers -3 (or -3.5 depending on the information source). I adjusted this line 12 points towards the Chargers to account for Herbert wanting to play out his final game as the leading ROY candidate and for the Chiefs simply wanting to be healthy entering the playoffs. With that adjustment the algo suggests the market is a fair. The public is split down the middle here too. If I had to play a side in this game, I’d rather take the Chargers mostly for the Herbert angle.

DEN (LV) - Moderate - This is a game where neither team has anything to play for but pride. The line opened Broncos -3 (-2.5 in the contest) but has been bet to Raiders -3 off a 3:1 public ticket ratio. The algo thinks the Broncos have the value here suggesting this line should be closer to Broncos -1 before we regress to the market. The contextual angle I’m thinking here is that the Raiders had postseason hopes at one point, whereas the Broncos came into the season knowing they’d have little to no chance of making the playoffs. Therefore, I’m thinking the Broncos have been playing “meaningless” games for most of the season and are used to this Week 17 letdown spot, whereas the Raiders are coming into this game with their heads bowed. Lean Broncos.

LAR (ARI) - Weak - Both teams need a “W” to make it into the playoffs. Unfortunately, Jared Goff is out recovering from surgery to his throwing hand. The line opened Cards -1 and has been bet to -3 in line with public support. I think the opening number is fair and the move to the contest number of -2.5 seems like the contrarian value is on the Rams, surprise surprise. In fact, I only had Goff rated at 2.5 points above replacement so for the market to be giving him like 6 seems too much. Heck, I think with Drew Brees going down earlier this season and Taysom Hill filling in was worth about 6 so hard to feel like Goff and his replacement are worth the same amount. That said, I would prefer to back the team at full strength so if forced to play this one I’d lean ARI -2.5.

CAR (NO) - Strong - Public teams are teams with a track record of success, a high-profile quarterback, a recognizable head coach, and a prolific offense. The Saints are a public team. But oh! we have a “sharp freeze” on the Saints -6.5 as of Wednesday night. That means, with the public on the Saints at close to a 6:1 clip, and the market line (let alone the contest line) not moving it to-and-through the key number of 7, indicates heavy value on the Panthers to keep it close on Sunday at home. At public betting ratios greater than 5:1, it’s almost an automatic fade the public play. I’m going for it here.

TEN (@HOU) - Moderate - The Titans opened 4.5-point favorites and have been steamed up to -7.5 off 3:1 public interest. The algo prefers the Titans here and so does my gut, which makes me a wee-bit nervous to back them. I’m not sure what the Texans are playing for—we know Deshaun Watson is a gamer but in describing the rest of the team this season the word “flaccid” comes to mind. Is it a wise long-term betting strategy to lay the TD hook? Heck no! The last time these two teams played (Week 6) the Texans lost in an OT thriller. The Titans aren’t the most consistent team but let’s ignore the snow bowl game last week in Green Bay and we see that they ran up the score against the Lions and Jags the two weeks prior. This game against the Texans will be their 4th in 5 games against the bottom-4 teams. They know how to win. I think the defense will be primed to erase the embarrassment of last week and the Titans win big.

PHI (WSH) - Weak - Quick note on this game. The algo doesn’t offer a side in this one; Eagles +2.5 seems fair on either side. The market has only reached Phi +1.5 so there’s weak arbitrage value on the Eagles at home to play spoiler to Washington. I’ve read contextual info arguing Jalen Hurts will want to have momentum going into the offseason. That’s a compelling assumption but we’ll see.

Unofficial Plays:

MIA +2.5

SF +6

CAR +6.5

TEN -7.5

CHI +5.5

Let’s do this!