Week 13 2020 picks

We’re in the final lap of the 2020 season—only 5 weeks remain!

Last week felt long didn’t it? Between the early Thanksgiving games and the thrice postponed PIT-BAL game, Week 12 was 2 calendar weeks long! But let’s put that behind us as we look ahead to Week 13. What immediately jumped out at me as I studied this week’s lineup was the sheer number of lopsided matchups. I look at the aggregate win% across all the games each week and usually this is right around 65% (+/- 2%). For this week it’s 73%! This tells me the matchup quality is poor. See the Packers hosting the Eagles, the Steelers hosting the Football Team, and the Chiefs hosting the Broncos as exhibits A, B, and C.

It also means I’m probably going to need to double down on my (feeble) attempt at taking more favorites this season. So with that in mind, allow me to venture down the avenue of point spreads and key numbers. It’s common knowledge that 3 is the most important number in the NFL. 33% of the time the spread is between 2.5 and 3.5, inclusive. When a game line is 3, any move off this number is substantial. Similarly, no one would argue about movement off of 7, the second most important number. What I’d like to say is that moves off 7.5 all the way to down 5.5 should be considered in the same way. 20% of the time the contest line has been between 5.5 and 7.5. Discerning bettors should always get the best price for a game but in the contest, given that the lines are static, my hypothesis is that the line offered in the contest is shaded towards the sharper side relative to the market consensus. The Browns this week only getting 5.5 at the Titans is a good example of this. The opening number is Titans -6 and if the book felt this would hold, they might have even offered -6.5, expecting Titans support, but only giving 5.5 says the Browns are likely to be the better side and in doing so they’ve closed the overtime TD backdoor putting a premium on taking the Browns.

Of course, the counterargument goes that because the contest lines are static, it offers an arbitrage opportunity relative to the closing line. Case in point, the late Bronco QB scratches last week playing the Saints. The contest line offered Saints -6 but once that news came out over the weekend, the market adjusted heavily moving it to -15.5 at some spots. In retrospect, that was too big of an arbitrage opportunity to pass up.

All that said, my exhortation to you is to understand whether you can afford the additional risk of not being price conscious when putting on a play.

Raw algorithm picks:

NE EV ★★★⇩

NO -3 ★★⇩

CIN +11.5 ★⚐

BUF -1.5 ★⇩

PIT -7.5 ★⇩

Sharp/Contrarian Sides:

NE (@LAC) - Moderate - The only reason this isn’t my strongest play of the week is because the market is moving slightly towards the Chargers and the Patriots are playing on the road. The line opened favoring the Pats by 1 and that’s essentially where the algo handicapped this game (-0.6). The public is pretty split (47%) but there’s momentum towards LAC as the game’s flipped to Chargers -1.5. Even though the absolute line move is 2.5, which seems large, across 0 it isn’t as dramatic—maybe 1 point normalized in my estimation. As 3-star plays go, this isn’t the strongest, given Pythag favoring the Chargers and the Patriots on the road, but the Chargers have the league’s weakest home field advantage in a season where that advantage has pretty much disappeared. That said, give me the Pats to win outright!

ATL (@NO) - Moderate - A slight majority of tickets (54%) are backing the Saints at home but the market has moved off the FG hook to a solid 3 points. Taking the hook off a good public team like the Saints is an indicator I pay attention to. The algo likes the Saints here but also notes the Falcons (who’ve gotten a reputation the past few seasons for being a second-half-of-the-season team) own the Pythag advantage here. The algo handicapped this game at Saints -4.5 but both teams came off impressive wins last week (even though I completely discounted the Saints’). I could wax poetic about more narratives attempting to justify the Falcons but I’ll save it and just say that I don’t think my model has adjusted quick enough for the Falcons’ improved play and overreacted to the Saints’ success with Taysom Hill at QB. Falcons +3 here.

PHI (@GB) - Moderate - The algo doesn’t identify the Eagles as a top-5 play but it does show healthy value here and the Eagles carry both the “lost last week while opponent won” flag (⚐) and the Pythag advantage. Not only that, the opening number (Eagles +6.5) is closer to the algorithm handicap (Eagles +5.3), which is a good indicator when the public moves the line the other way. The contest is offering 8.5, which matches the current consensus and is the result of 62% of public tickets. Finally, I abhor the Eagles. I find Wentz downright irresponsible with the football and suffering from a bout of my-team-had-success-without-me-now-I-need-to-prove-my-worth-itis, but this could be the depths of pessimism around this team that is a good “buy” signal. I’m in (but literally just took a deep breath as I typed that).

HOU (IND) - Strong - This is the strongest sharp play of the week in my estimation. The line has moved a 0.5-point from opening with the FG hook and moving down to -3 at some spots (remember moves around 3 carry greater weight than similar magnitude moves around other numbers). The public is, of course, backing the Colts at a 62% clip. Contrary to the Eagles-Packers game, where the opening number approximated the algo handicap and the majority public support pushed the line away from the algo number, in this Colts-Texans game, we have the opposite: the algo suggests Texans +4 is a fair handicap but the opening number is moving away from the algo down to Texans -3 even though the public support would otherwise move the line towards Colts -4 or higher. This is the sharp difference and why I want to back the Texans this week.

SF (BUF) - Weak - The talking heads are all over the ‘Niners this week for some reason. Sure, they beat a solid Rams team last week but they’ve been banished from playing in their home stadium until further notice so this isn’t even a home game for them. The algo has the Bills as a top-5 team, crazy I know, and that’s led the algo to handicap this game as Bills -5.3. Only laying 2.5 in this spot seems almost too good to be true, and maybe it is seeing that the market currently favors the ‘Niners by 1.5! The fact that the opening number was 49ers -1 tells me there’s something I’m missing here and I want to stay away.

CIN (@MIA) - Weak - To be transparent, this is neither a strong contrarian play nor an obvious sharp angle but since it is one of the algorithm’s top plays, I want to write about it. The Bengals are getting slightly less than 50% of the public interest but according to my sources are getting a strong 2:1 ratio of the money. The line appears unchanged from opening Dolphins -10.5 but the contest is making Dolphins backers lay an additional point. My Pythag signal isn’t officially triggered for this matchup but digging deeper into the numbers reveals the Bengals have a decent advantage here too. I can’t say they’re a top-5 unofficial play but I to lean Bengals +11.5.

WSH (PIT) - Off The Board

SEA (@NYG) - Moderate - I am taking the Seahawks in my survivor pool and I wanted to hedge here by taking the G-Men +10 in the contest. As Luther says in Mission: Impossible, “I don’t know…I just don’t know.” On one hand, the market move a full point from 10 at the open to 11, where the algo handicaps the Seahawks gives more credence to the 55/45 public and money support for the Seahawks. In conjunction with the value of only needing to lay 10 points in the contest, this seems like a good favorite to take. On the other hand, the Pythag advantage goes to the Giants and if looking at backing them, the Amos spread suggests 6 is the minimum points to take, so getting 10 seems like huge value. Personally, because I’m already staking a claim on the Seahawks to win outright, I think the best course for my mental state is to pass on this one.

CLE (@TEN) - Moderate - Can you believe the Browns are…wait for it…8-3!? Well I couldn’t either and neither could ‘ol Pythagorean. Turns out the Browns have 3 wins above expectation! Even against the Titans’ relative outperformance, it’s still enough to trigger the signal. This line opened Titans -6 and the market doesn’t seem to have reached a consensus yet. The public and money looks to be split down the middle (slight tilt towards the Titans). The contest is only giving Browns backers 5.5, and as I explained in the opener, 5.5 is a less-than-ideal number to take if you’re looking to back the Browns. Of course the algo thinks even at 5.5 there’s value to be had backing the Browns so that will be the side I’m leaning towards until the market works itself out.

NYJ (LV) - Moderate - Dammit! The Jets again! They are the epitome of pessimism. No surprise but the Jets seem to be the contrarian play. Fortunately, the contest is giving us the hook on top of the current market number of Raiders -8. The public is coming to the window to bet the Raiders at a near 2:1 frequency but the money ratio is the mirror image so the line hasn’t budged signaling moderate respected support for the Jets. Glancing at the past few weeks of SuperContest entrant selections, the Jets are the or one of the most unpopular plays each week. Would I like to see a little stronger sharp action on the Jets? Yes. Does it turn my gut? Yes. Should I play it. ….Yes. ☹️

Unofficial Plays:

NE EV

ATL +3

PHI +8.5

HOU +3.5

NYJ +8.5

Alas, no favorites! (I’m trying I promise!)