Week 13 2019 picks - Turkey & Stuffing edition

 

Happy Thanksgiving! I thought I would quickly share my thoughts on the 3 Thanksgiving Day games today.

But first, let’s review last week’s performance:

  • Raw Algo Picks: 2-3 (40%)

  • Unofficial Plays: 3-2 (60%)

  • Official Plays: 3-2 (60%)

That brings the unofficial season record to 3-7 (30%). Since I started this blog in the middle of the season you’ll have to take my word for it but the Official Plays are 33-24-3 (58%) through week 12 2019. Ok, now on to the games!

Raw algorithm picks:

DET +4.5 (CHI)

BUF +6.5 (@DAL)

NO -7 (@ATL)

One of my contest partners brought up a good point about forgetting these games are on Thursday. One of the inputs to the system is whether the short week team is playing at home. That makes me lean to all the home team sides in these matchups.

Sharp/Contrarian sides:

DET (CHI) - Strong - This line has moved from DET -1.5 to CHI -6! That’s a 7.5-point shift! Yes, Stafford isn’t playing but this seems like a huge overreaction from the public with 3:1 tickets coming in on CHI. Apparently the DET fans may not show up to this game so even if you remove the HFA, there still seems like value on DET here. The old adage “buy on bad news, sell on good news” applies. CHI is a tough team to back and though the SuperContest has the line at only laying 4.5 with the Bears, I feel like this is a ‘dog or pass situation.

BUF (@DAL) - Weak - This line shifted off the key number of 7 to BUF +6.5 off of 55% public tickets—a magnitude in line with expectation. Algo likes BUF (33% chance of winning). Like in the DET game, this is another ‘dog or pass. Lean BUF.

ATL (NO) - Moderate - Public tickets coming in at over 4:1 on NO. The line has moved from NO -5.5 to -7 (EV), which is where the SuperContest has set the line. These teams met in New Orleans a few weeks ago, where the Falcons took it to the Saints in a major upset. While I see the tables turning here (algo likes NO -7.5), the question is whether this will be a NO blowout. Laying a TD on the road is not a good proposition and with each team coming off polar opposite results last week, ‘dog or pass again here.

Unofficial play:

DET +4.5

Let’s start the week strong!

 
Christopher Ruckelresults, markets, contests, algorithm, picks, 2019