Week 12 2020 picks
Happy Thanksgiving!
There are 6 weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL season and all of our entries are within striking distance of the podium. From past experience, this is the time when gut impressions tend to cloud our process the most! 11 weeks is a decent sample size to make sense of teams and can be quite compelling when trying to discern the best ATS plays each week!
Trust the process!
As investor Dan O’Shaughnessy observed (original emphasis):
An analyst from a major Wall Street bank was visiting us after the financial crisis and he noted that over 60% of quants overrode their models during the crisis. Remaining unemotional in my time as a portfolio manager has been one of the hardest things I have done, and yet, well worth it over the longer term.
In single season contests, “long term” is relative. I have no doubt our processes to pick ATS winners would be superior if they were to be judged cumulatively over multiple, consecutive seasons (as I hope to show with actual data from our contest history in the coming weeks) but there’s a hefty amount of luck involved when trying to win a single season contest. And assuredly, cherry-picking a single week’s performance as indicative of future results is setting yourself up for disappointment.
Even our best performing entry is only on pace for a meager 48.5 points in this year’s contest. Yes, this season seems to have lower scores than in year’s past, but not cracking 60% (52 points) is hoping the other contestants falter down the stretch—and we aim to own our future. So let’s go 5/5 this week!
Raw algorithm picks:
CHI +9.5 ★★★
DEN +6 ★
MIA -6.5 ★
CIN +6 ★
DET +3 ★⚐ (SEA -4.5 ★⇩)
Sharp/Contrarian Sides:
DET (HOU) - Weak - The Lions are a Thanksgiving Day stalwart and their ATS performance is stellar. Fresh off an embarrassing shutout as a short favorite versus the Panthers last week, one would think the contrarian angle would be all over the Lions here. The algo showed a ton of value (over 3.5 points) suggesting the Lions would be the play. The public had other thoughts, predictably, clocking in at 59% towards the Texans and the line moved predictably from the -2.5 opener to -3 at kickoff. Having been burned by the Lions one too many times, we opted to lay off taking the points here and that saved us as the Texans and big-time Deshaun Watson rolled in the nationally televised game.
WSH (@DAL) - Moderate - Both NFC Least teams won last week (when was the last time that happened?). But the Cowboys were arguably more impressive overcoming their 7-point underdog status and winning outright against the Vikings. The Football Team was no less impressive, winning convincingly against the Bengals—though Burrow’s injury probably tarnished the win. The opening line was a fair Cowboys -1 but the public gobbled that up quickly and the line moved to -3. The contest offered this game at -2.5 and even at that number the Football Team appeared to have more than 1 point of value. Half of the entries took Washington and they didn’t even need the points as the Football Team rolled convincingly.
CHI (@GB) - Weak - The only positive I can say here is that the Bears are coming off a bye. But facing Rodgers at Green Bay is a recipe for a run-up. The line opened Packers -8.5 and has moved to -9.5 off a decent majority of public bets. I don’t see any evidence of a buyback at -9.5 and I suspect, given the contest offering of the same, that this number will remain static here. To be fair, the algo loves the Bears to cover: the more aggressive Amos Spread thinks 3 is a fair line and the former algo suggests 7 is in order. My gut just threw up all over this game, but maybe that’s a sign of a good pick.
DEN (NO) - Moderate - Who is more valuable in the QB-HC collaboration? It seems Sean Peyton’s alchemy with both Teddy Bridgewater last season and Taysom Hill’s acceptable but victorious performance last week is making a case the HC deserves the credit. This is the week I think the League humbles him a bit. The Broncos opened as 5.5 underdogs but have been bet to 6-point ‘dogs on Thursday night getting less than 40% of the public support. My numbers suggest 4.5 is more like it and if I see buy-back on DEN at 6, I’ll feel even better!
LAC (@BUF) - Strong - The Chargers are the sharpest play of the week so far. Sure looks like discerning bettors can’t get enough of the ROY favorite in Justin Herbert. The line here has moved to +5.5 from +6 at the open while the Chargers are only getting 38% of the public action. Classic sharp move. I’d be giddier if my algo verified this move but it likes the Bills by a TD though the Pythag W/L differential favors the Chargers here. The sharp angle has been too good to me lately to pass up this play.
TEN (@IND) - Moderate - After rolling with the Colts for three straight weeks, the sharps, at least for the moment, seem to be taking a breather in this one. The Titans are raking an overwhelming amount of the money, which has moved the line 1.5 points to the FG stop gap. The algo weighs in between favoring the Colts by 2.5-4.5 points so I see this as validation for the Titans and that the value seems to have dissipated at this point. Probably will follow the money and play the Titans.
JAX (CLE) - Moderate - This line appears frozen at 6.5 favoring the Browns while 60% of public tickets are on them. Sure, if there was ever a number hung to entice equal action it’d probably be 6.5—right between the key numbers of 6 and 7. In fact, as of Friday, this appears to be moving up. The contest is offering 6.5, which is right where I have this game handicapped from the Jaguars’ perspective but I actually show decent value if looking at this game from the Browns’ perspective. However, two things make me nervous with the Browns. 1) My estimation of the Browns seems a little high versus the other models and 2) The Jags have the Pythag advantage in this matchup.
NYJ (MIA) - Moderate - Another game where the opening number hasn’t moved off Dolphins -7. The contest is offering Jets +6.5 though and given the lopsided action preferring the Dolphins, it seems the Jets are again live for a backdoor cover. The algo prefers the Dolphins with Flacco starting but sees Darnold worth 2 points above his backup. I’m interested to see if Darnold can shake off the rust and cover the 6.5.
NYG (@CIN) - Moderate - The Bengals are the algo’s play this week but given how sharply the market has moved off the opening number of 4.5 to 6 in favor of the Giants, I wonder if Burrow’s season-ending injury more significant than I would’ve thought? The algo thinks a FG is all the Giants deserve here and laying 6 on the road isn’t something I’m comfortable with. Maybe sharps buy back over the weekend but if this number continues to rise, I’m going to lay off.
TB (KC) - Moderate - Over 80% of the money is on the Chiefs here pushing the line up to 3.5. The algo thinks 4 might be the right number but laying it with the Chiefs on the road I don’t think is the right side. The Pythag differential favors the Bucs and it wouldn’t surprise me if their poor performance last week was due in part to this look-ahead game. In this matchup, if the number gets steamed up to 4 by game time, I’ll lay it with the Chiefs. Otherwise I’ll take TB.
NE (ARI) - Weak - This line opened as a pick ‘em and the public support of Arizona has moved it to -1.5. The algo thinks 2 is the fair line and the contest offering the number at 2.5 suggests slight contrarian value taking the home team, Patriots here.
CAR (@MIN) - Strong - The Vikings aren’t a terrible team but the wiseguys seem disinterested in backing them lately. In fact, even with a 50/50 ticket count split, the Panthers are taking in some respected money in order to move this from the opening mark of Vikings -4 to now -3. With the contest giving us the hook here, I am in on the Panthers.
SF (LAR) - Strong - Ugh. I really didn’t want to lay a full TD in the NFL, especially when the matchup is an in-state, divisional rival. Fortunately with a split public ticket count but the line moving convincingly towards the 49ers, it looks like I won’t have to. No disrespect to the 49ers here, but as Uncle Colin mentioned this week about the market not yet catching up to the Giants, I feel the same about the Rams at the other end of the power ratings spectrum. With all the talk about the 49ers being the class of the division until the injury bug got them, and potential MVP, Russell Wilson’s “cookin’”, oh and Kyler Murray’s high flying Cardinals, somehow the Rams are not being discussed much in the circles I follow. Even their off-season HBO Hard Knocks appearance didn’t get the hoopla it would’ve in a non-pandemic year. The algo thinks 7 is fair from the underdog view but likes the Rams a little more (fair value 8.5). We’ll monitor this line action up to game time.
PHI (SEA) - Weak - Spoiler alert: I’m not playing the Eagles. I’ve simply noted that they’re the contrarian side here—but I don’t think they’ll be the right side come Sunday. The line’s moved well off the opening number of Seahawks -3 to -5 (as of Friday night). Seahawks public tickets heavily outnumber their winged competitor’s but the money appears to be rather even. Seahawks -6.5 is where I’ve handicapped this game so only needing to lay 4.5 is tempting but a square bet for sure.
Unofficial Plays: