Week 1 2021 picks
Welcome to the start of the 2021 NFL season! It’s good to be back.
This will be our 6th year in the contest and we’ve amassed a respectable 229-182-14 (55.7%) record to date.
For those new to the blog, I do my best to post the algorithm picks and our official contest picks ahead of the weekend games. For each game of interest, I quickly rundown the key betting numbers like public ticket ratio and how the contest line compares to the market.
Before looking at Week 1, I suggest reading the process for how I determine the algorithm’s Week 1 power ratings. Then, head on over to The Analytics to see each game’s variance using the other benchmark models (like ESPN’s FPI). After you’ve digested all of that info, I present to you the raw algo picks…
Raw algorithm picks:
PIT +6.5 ★★★
MIA +3 ★★
NYG +3 ★★
HOU +3 ★★
IND +3 ★
Sharp/Contrarian sides:
IND (SEA) - Weak - Based on my preseason power ratings, these two teams aren’t separated by much—in fact only 1.1 points. The line opened Colts -2.5, which if you take my power rating and apply home field advantage, -2.5 seems about right. Now the line’s moved to Seahawks -3 off 70% public backing. Sharp money seems to be dragging the total down too from 52.5 to 48.5, not an insignificant move. This is something to consider because the lower the total, the higher the premium on laying points. I just think the line move was too much and like the home team here in Week 1.
HOU (JAX) - Moderate - Again, a home underdog getting a field goal here, which is always tempting. Plus, try to give me one reason taking the Texans makes you feel good? You can’t really…neither can I, which is why I feel good about it. The top-of-mind, System 1 narratives clinging to these two teams are: 1) the Jaguars have a household name, winning head coach and probably the best QB out of last year’s draft class starting. 2) The Texans have serious controversy swirling their star QB who won’t be playing this week. The public is taking the Jags at a 60% clip and that’s enough to push the line from the 2.5 opener to a full FG. Strictly contrarian but worth taking a flyer on the Texans.
NYJ (@CAR) - Moderate - Uncle Colin has this game on his Blazin’ 5 slate this week but squarely on the Panthers, pun intended. The public is backing the Panthers at a 70% rate while the line’s been dropping steadily. The contest offers this game at 5, which certainly make the Jets more compelling and the contest selection ratio seem heavily skewed towards the Panthers. My raw algo suggests 5.5 is a fairer line and actually Amos would also say the contest line is more indicative of this game versus the market consensus. The Jets are the contrarian side. It’s close but could be worth a play.
CIN (MIN) - Moderate - Again, the home team getting a FG is hard to pass up. The algo actually thinks 3 is the right market number (2.8) and Amos classically prefers the home team. The Vikings have the public support (70%) but the market currently sits at the opening number of 3. Lean Bengals.
PHI (@ATL) - Moderate - The Falcons have been a trendy pick to outperform this season—aggregate model consensus suggests ATL is the better value in this matchup—yet the public split 50/50. I expect the Falcons to win but I’m playing the hook here. Amos doesn’t have a preference, about 0.2 points of value from either team’s perspective which indicates the line is fair.
DET (SF) - Strong - Love this pick (which might be reason to run away from it!). It doesn’t appear the sharps have weighed in much on the Lions as the line has moved a full point towards the ‘Niners, currently -8.5 off 65% public backing. The strong public conviction in Week 1 is truly mind-boggling. Certainly, performance last season is correlated with performance for the coming season but neither team has had continuity at the most important position, QB, from last season to this one so it’s too big of a stretch for me to lay more than a TD on the road. The Circa Sports Million III breakdown has the ‘Niners receiving the 3rd most selections. I very much like fading the entrants when it aligns with my model. While the contest line is only offering 7.5 I’m playing it!
CLE (@KC) - Moderate - The Browns are only getting 32% of the public interest yet the line’s moved from +6 to +5.5 in the market (the contest is offering 6). For that reason it’s a sharp play. But let’s apply consistent decision-making logic that we’ve used to evaluate the other games this week before making it play on it. For one, the contest line is 6, which says that if they were anticipating sharp action on the Browns, why wouldn’t the contest get ahead of that like it often does? My hypothesis is that they consider many of their contest entrants to be squares and therefore want to shade the more public team (the Chiefs). Second, my raw algo thinks 6.3 is the right number and Amos technically doesn’t indicate either way but slightly favors the Browns. For what it’s worth, Uncle Colin likes the Chiefs here at home. I certainly think the number will be in play this game and I’m going to get behind the Browns.
NO (GB) - Moderate - As I study the lines each week I’m particularly interested in the teams that I absolutely DON’T want to back. This week it’s the Saints. I think for that reason alone they’re a contrarian play. Certainly that they’re playing a home game away from home and have a new QB are reason enough to stay away, but it’s not like the Packers have had that placid of an offseason. Going to pass but for the record the algo is on the Saints and it offers good contrarian value versus the contest selection popularity.
NE (MIA) - Moderate - This seems to be a sharp play this week. The line opened Patriots -2 but has been moved through the FG to -3.5 off of only 65% public backing. I should say that if the algo also backed the Pats here I’d classify this a Strong play but it thinks Pats -1 is more indicative of these two teams. Looks like I’m a little high versus the model aggregate consensus but the market has continued to trend against both my algo and the other models, which is another indication of sharp action. Like the Pats here.
CHI (@LAR) - Strong - Love this one. The public is on the Rams at a 5:1 clip, which is pretty much an automatic fade. The contest selections indicate the Rams are the 6th most popular team this week that, when coupled with the algo’s calculated value of a half-point, makes this one a play.
LV (BAL) - Moderate - The raw algo leans the Raiders and getting points at home is a good proposition. While the public is leaning the Ravens at a 55/45 ratio, the line’s moved a full point towards the home team currently resting on -4. Absent other info, i’d like to back the Raiders but I see the contest selections heavily favor them too so in my opinion, there’s not enough value in this game to play it.
Other notable games:
PIT (@BUF) - The Steelers offer plenty of value in this matchup. The raw algo suggests almost a full FG of value and though the Amos line hedges a little, it still strongly favors the Steelers by nearly 2 points. Not to mention the public is rearing to back the Bills off of their impressive 2020 campaign. Playing Steelers here.